Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM)
Climate change significantly impacts local, regional, and global vegetation changes. These changes have continued to threaten ecosystems, especially in dryland areas where moisture is scarce, and the livelihoods of rural communities are at risk because of such changes, as well as their capacity to p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23011214 |
| _version_ | 1797655116548931584 |
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| author | Mohammad Hadi Ahmad Ahmed Abubakar Mohd Yusoff Ishak Samir Shehu Danhassan Zhang Jiahua Juha M. Alatalo |
| author_facet | Mohammad Hadi Ahmad Ahmed Abubakar Mohd Yusoff Ishak Samir Shehu Danhassan Zhang Jiahua Juha M. Alatalo |
| author_sort | Mohammad Hadi Ahmad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change significantly impacts local, regional, and global vegetation changes. These changes have continued to threaten ecosystems, especially in dryland areas where moisture is scarce, and the livelihoods of rural communities are at risk because of such changes, as well as their capacity to provide outputs and sustain the livelihoods of rural communities. This study aims to derive a simulation model of vegetation conditions concerning daily temperature and extreme precipitation indices in Katsina State, Nigeria. This study uses remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis, time series analysis of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and twenty-four indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection to evaluate the influence of Temp and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics/NDVI. The results indicate that the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is performing satisfactorily in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures, along with precipitation, for the time horizon of the simulation. Mean precipitation of 1.98 mm (RCP2.6), 2.03 mm (RCP4.5), and 2.07 mm (RCP8.5) was revealed in the study area. Tmax and Tmin were projected under low emissions at 20.1 0C and 14.25 0C (RCP2.6), 20.13 °C and 14.26 0C (RCP4.5), and 20.15 0C and 14.27 0C (RCP8.5) respectively. All the scenarios present increasing minimum and maximum temperatures and decreasing precipitation, except for RCP8.5, which predicted a more adverse trend. However, in Katsina State, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin, extreme temperature and precipitation indices, and drought indices successfully demonstrated spatial and temporal variability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:09:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8f3b9db752244ce095e887fb575c3d87 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T17:09:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-8f3b9db752244ce095e887fb575c3d872023-10-20T06:38:35ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-11-01155110979Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM)Mohammad Hadi Ahmad0Ahmed Abubakar1Mohd Yusoff Ishak2Samir Shehu Danhassan3Zhang Jiahua4Juha M. Alatalo5Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria; Space Applications Department, Zonal Advanced Space Technology Applications Laboratory National Space Research and Development Agency, NigeriaFaculty of Forestry and Environment, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor 43400, MalaysiaFaculty of Forestry and Environment, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor 43400, MalaysiaCollege of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaCollege of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaEnvironmental Science Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Corresponding author.Climate change significantly impacts local, regional, and global vegetation changes. These changes have continued to threaten ecosystems, especially in dryland areas where moisture is scarce, and the livelihoods of rural communities are at risk because of such changes, as well as their capacity to provide outputs and sustain the livelihoods of rural communities. This study aims to derive a simulation model of vegetation conditions concerning daily temperature and extreme precipitation indices in Katsina State, Nigeria. This study uses remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis, time series analysis of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and twenty-four indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection to evaluate the influence of Temp and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics/NDVI. The results indicate that the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is performing satisfactorily in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures, along with precipitation, for the time horizon of the simulation. Mean precipitation of 1.98 mm (RCP2.6), 2.03 mm (RCP4.5), and 2.07 mm (RCP8.5) was revealed in the study area. Tmax and Tmin were projected under low emissions at 20.1 0C and 14.25 0C (RCP2.6), 20.13 °C and 14.26 0C (RCP4.5), and 20.15 0C and 14.27 0C (RCP8.5) respectively. All the scenarios present increasing minimum and maximum temperatures and decreasing precipitation, except for RCP8.5, which predicted a more adverse trend. However, in Katsina State, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin, extreme temperature and precipitation indices, and drought indices successfully demonstrated spatial and temporal variability.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23011214VegetationPrecipitationMaximum temperatureMinimum temperature |
| spellingShingle | Mohammad Hadi Ahmad Ahmed Abubakar Mohd Yusoff Ishak Samir Shehu Danhassan Zhang Jiahua Juha M. Alatalo Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) Ecological Indicators Vegetation Precipitation Maximum temperature Minimum temperature |
| title | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_full | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_short | Modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in Katsina State using statistical downscaling model (SDM) |
| title_sort | modeling the influence of daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices on vegetation dynamics in katsina state using statistical downscaling model sdm |
| topic | Vegetation Precipitation Maximum temperature Minimum temperature |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23011214 |
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