Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change
The northwestern Pacific monsoon trough (NWPMT) deeply impacts socio-economic development and human security over East Asia by supplying moisture to the summer monsoon rainfall and modulating tropical cyclone activities. However, considerable inter-model spreads in the coupled model inter-comparison...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a80 |
| _version_ | 1797213060218224640 |
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| author | Tao Tang Li Qi Tomoki Tozuka Jing-Jia Luo Fenghua Ling Ling Luo Jin-Hai He |
| author_facet | Tao Tang Li Qi Tomoki Tozuka Jing-Jia Luo Fenghua Ling Ling Luo Jin-Hai He |
| author_sort | Tao Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The northwestern Pacific monsoon trough (NWPMT) deeply impacts socio-economic development and human security over East Asia by supplying moisture to the summer monsoon rainfall and modulating tropical cyclone activities. However, considerable inter-model spreads in the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 6 models make the future projection of the NWPMT less reliable. Here, we find that the inter-model spread of the NWPMT change is significantly correlated with the central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature change, and mainly determined by the equatorial thermocline sharpness in the historical simulations. According to the emergent constraint method, the central equatorial Pacific SST would warm up about 6% slower than the multi-model mean with 56% uncertainty reduced. Correspondingly, the NWPMT would slacken westward with 36% uncertainty reduced. Results here emphasize the importance of examining and reducing systematic model biases in simulating thermocline sharpness that have been overlooked in past literatures, before achieving more reliable future projections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:52:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8f3be5e69de84a318b79743ffbdb8889 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:52:16Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-8f3be5e69de84a318b79743ffbdb88892024-04-12T07:46:56ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262024-01-0119505400310.1088/1748-9326/ad3a80Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough changeTao Tang0Li Qi1Tomoki Tozuka2Jing-Jia Luo3Fenghua Ling4Ling Luo5Jin-Hai He6Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory , Hangzhou 310002, People’s Republic of China; Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo , Tokyo 113-0033, JapanKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of China; Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of China; Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of ChinaZhejiang Meteorological Observatory , Hangzhou 310002, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of China; Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing 210044, People’s Republic of ChinaThe northwestern Pacific monsoon trough (NWPMT) deeply impacts socio-economic development and human security over East Asia by supplying moisture to the summer monsoon rainfall and modulating tropical cyclone activities. However, considerable inter-model spreads in the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 6 models make the future projection of the NWPMT less reliable. Here, we find that the inter-model spread of the NWPMT change is significantly correlated with the central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature change, and mainly determined by the equatorial thermocline sharpness in the historical simulations. According to the emergent constraint method, the central equatorial Pacific SST would warm up about 6% slower than the multi-model mean with 56% uncertainty reduced. Correspondingly, the NWPMT would slacken westward with 36% uncertainty reduced. Results here emphasize the importance of examining and reducing systematic model biases in simulating thermocline sharpness that have been overlooked in past literatures, before achieving more reliable future projections.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a80northwestern Pacific monsoon troughtropical Pacific mean-state changethermocline sharpnessCMIP6emergent constraint method |
| spellingShingle | Tao Tang Li Qi Tomoki Tozuka Jing-Jia Luo Fenghua Ling Ling Luo Jin-Hai He Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change Environmental Research Letters northwestern Pacific monsoon trough tropical Pacific mean-state change thermocline sharpness CMIP6 emergent constraint method |
| title | Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change |
| title_full | Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change |
| title_fullStr | Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change |
| title_short | Emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial Pacific warming and northwestern Pacific monsoon trough change |
| title_sort | emergent constraint on the projected central equatorial pacific warming and northwestern pacific monsoon trough change |
| topic | northwestern Pacific monsoon trough tropical Pacific mean-state change thermocline sharpness CMIP6 emergent constraint method |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a80 |
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