Predicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave Theory
Since fast head-on coronal mass ejections and their associated shocks represent potential hazards to the space environment of the Earth and even other planets, forecasting the arrival time of the corresponding interplanetary shock is a priority in space weather research and prediction. Based on the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | The Astrophysical Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad150f |
| _version_ | 1797303047540441088 |
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| author | Ran Li Xinhua Zhao Jingye Yan Lin Wu Yang Yang Xuning Lv Shiwei Feng Mengsi Ruan Nanbin Xiang Yidan Liang |
| author_facet | Ran Li Xinhua Zhao Jingye Yan Lin Wu Yang Yang Xuning Lv Shiwei Feng Mengsi Ruan Nanbin Xiang Yidan Liang |
| author_sort | Ran Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since fast head-on coronal mass ejections and their associated shocks represent potential hazards to the space environment of the Earth and even other planets, forecasting the arrival time of the corresponding interplanetary shock is a priority in space weather research and prediction. Based on the radio spectrum observations of the 16-element array of the Daocheng Solar Radio Telescope (DSRT), the flagship instrument of the Meridian Project of China, during its construction, this study determines the initial shock speed of a type II solar radio burst on 2022 April 17 from its drifting speed in the spectrum. Assuming that the shock travels at a steady speed during the piston-driven phase (determined from the X-ray flux of the associated flare) and then propagates through interplanetary space as a blast wave, we estimate the propagation and arrival time of the corresponding shock at the orbit of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-A (STEREO-A). The prediction shows that the shock will reach STEREO-A at 14:31:57 UT on 2022 April 19. The STEREO-A satellite detected an interplanetary shock at 13:52:12 UT on the same day. The discrepancy between the predicted and observed arrival time of the shock is only 0.66 hr. The purpose of this paper is to establish a general method for predicting the shock’s propagation and arrival time from this example, which will be utilized to predict more events in the future based on the observations of ground-based solar radio spectrometers or telescopes like DSRT. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:47:20Z |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1538-4357 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:47:20Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Astrophysical Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-8f4076ec977741ae83ffda6f916478e82024-02-19T10:37:08ZengIOP PublishingThe Astrophysical Journal1538-43572024-01-01962217810.3847/1538-4357/ad150fPredicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave TheoryRan Li0Xinhua Zhao1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9977-2646Jingye Yan2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7597-7663Lin Wu3Yang Yang4Xuning Lv5Shiwei Feng6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9634-5139Mengsi Ruan7Nanbin Xiang8https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9062-7453Yidan Liang9State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People's Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn; Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center) , Chengdu 610041, People's Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn; Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center) , Chengdu 610041, People's Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn; Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center) , Chengdu 610041, People's Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn; Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center) , Chengdu 610041, People's Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn; Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center) , Chengdu 610041, People's Republic of ChinaShandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Physics, Shandong University at Weihai , Weihai 264209, Shandong, People's Republic of ChinaShenzhen Key Laboratory of Numerical Prediction for Space Storm, Institute of Space Science and Applied Technology , Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen 518055, People's Republic of ChinaYunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Kunming 650011, People's Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China xhzhao@spaceweather.ac.cn; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People's Republic of ChinaSince fast head-on coronal mass ejections and their associated shocks represent potential hazards to the space environment of the Earth and even other planets, forecasting the arrival time of the corresponding interplanetary shock is a priority in space weather research and prediction. Based on the radio spectrum observations of the 16-element array of the Daocheng Solar Radio Telescope (DSRT), the flagship instrument of the Meridian Project of China, during its construction, this study determines the initial shock speed of a type II solar radio burst on 2022 April 17 from its drifting speed in the spectrum. Assuming that the shock travels at a steady speed during the piston-driven phase (determined from the X-ray flux of the associated flare) and then propagates through interplanetary space as a blast wave, we estimate the propagation and arrival time of the corresponding shock at the orbit of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-A (STEREO-A). The prediction shows that the shock will reach STEREO-A at 14:31:57 UT on 2022 April 19. The STEREO-A satellite detected an interplanetary shock at 13:52:12 UT on the same day. The discrepancy between the predicted and observed arrival time of the shock is only 0.66 hr. The purpose of this paper is to establish a general method for predicting the shock’s propagation and arrival time from this example, which will be utilized to predict more events in the future based on the observations of ground-based solar radio spectrometers or telescopes like DSRT.https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad150fSolar coronal mass ejectionsInterplanetary shocksRadio burstsSpace weatherTheoretical models |
| spellingShingle | Ran Li Xinhua Zhao Jingye Yan Lin Wu Yang Yang Xuning Lv Shiwei Feng Mengsi Ruan Nanbin Xiang Yidan Liang Predicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave Theory The Astrophysical Journal Solar coronal mass ejections Interplanetary shocks Radio bursts Space weather Theoretical models |
| title | Predicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave Theory |
| title_full | Predicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave Theory |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave Theory |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave Theory |
| title_short | Predicting the Arrival Time of an Interplanetary Shock Based on DSRT Spectrum Observations for the Corresponding Type II Radio Burst and a Blast Wave Theory |
| title_sort | predicting the arrival time of an interplanetary shock based on dsrt spectrum observations for the corresponding type ii radio burst and a blast wave theory |
| topic | Solar coronal mass ejections Interplanetary shocks Radio bursts Space weather Theoretical models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad150f |
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