Determinants of Stock Market Indices: An Analysis of Emerging Markets of Brazil, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the stock market index and a set of macroeconomic variables in four emerging countries. The dependent variable measures monthly stock exchange points of respective markets from January 2010 to March 2021. Independent variables consist of the 5...

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Bibliografski detalji
Glavni autori: Hülya Yılmaz, Bülent İlhan
Format: Članak
Jezik:English
Izdano: University Library System, University of Pittsburgh 2022-08-01
Serija:Emerging Markets Journal
Teme:
Online pristup:http://emaj.pitt.edu/ojs/index.php/emaj/article/view/257
Opis
Sažetak:This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the stock market index and a set of macroeconomic variables in four emerging countries. The dependent variable measures monthly stock exchange points of respective markets from January 2010 to March 2021. Independent variables consist of the 5-Year bond yields, CDS Premiums, VIX Futures, gold price, MSCI Emerging Market Index, and Oil Prices. Since the dependent and independent variables have a cointegrating relationship, we conducted our analyses in both the short and long term. Findings indicated that CDS premiums, oil and gold prices have a negative, while VIX and MSCI have a positive effect on the stock index in the long term. On the other hand, bond yields and the COVID-19 have a negative while MSCI has a positive effect in the short term. In addition, the long-term effects are much evident in Brazil and Russia. The speed of adjustment to the long-term equilibrium in the stock market index is much higher in Turkey and Mexico.
ISSN:2158-8708