Application of numerical prediction to the tropical cyclone tracks forecast in sea shore coast and land falling(近海和登陆热带气旋路径预报的数值预报释用方法)
基于数值预报的释用技术,将支持向量机(SVM)回归方法应用于近海和登陆热带气旋(TC)的路径预报. 从气象要素预报场与TC中心相关联的极值网格区域导出的中心相关点,以及TC线性外推位置,组成相关因子,建立预报模式,用来预报12,24,36,48,60和72 h之后的TC位置.应用GFS数值预报资料对2009和2010年14 个TC进行实际业务应用检验,6个时次的距离绝对值误差分别为69.3,106.4,134.6,169.0,222.4和264.4 km;距离标准误差为63. 1,89. 2,80. 1,84. 1,104. 6和124. 1 km.前48 h模式预报与中央气象台的预报结果相近...
Main Authors: | SUNJunbo(孙军波), QIANYanzhen(钱燕珍), ZHANGChengming(张程明) |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | zho |
Published: |
Zhejiang University Press
2014-12-01
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Series: | Zhejiang Daxue xuebao. Lixue ban |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2014.Supp.007 |
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