Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands
Recent observations and publications have presented the possibility of a high and accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) later this century due to ice sheet instability and retreat in Antarctica. Under a high warming scenario, this may result in a sea level in 2100 that is up to 2 m higher than present an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/10/1527 |
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| author | Jos van Alphen Marjolijn Haasnoot Ferdinand Diermanse |
| author_facet | Jos van Alphen Marjolijn Haasnoot Ferdinand Diermanse |
| author_sort | Jos van Alphen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent observations and publications have presented the possibility of a high and accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) later this century due to ice sheet instability and retreat in Antarctica. Under a high warming scenario, this may result in a sea level in 2100 that is up to 2 m higher than present and 5 m in 2150. The large uncertainties in these projections significantly increase the challenge for investment planning in coastal strategies in densely populated coastal zones such as the Netherlands. In this paper, we present the results of two studies that were carried out within the framework of the Dutch Delta Programme. The first study showed that it is not only the absolute SLR that presents a challenge but also the annual rate of rise. The latter impacts the lifetime of constructions such as barriers and pumping stations. When the rate of sea-level rise increases up to several centimeters per year, the intended lifetime of a flood defense structure may be reduced from a century to several decades. This new challenge requires new technologies, experiments, strategies, and governance. The second study explored different strategies for the long term to adapt to high SLR (>1 m) and assessed the consequences thereof on adaptation and developments in the coming 2–3 decades. We believe that strategic choices have to be made regarding the permanent closure of estuaries, the pumping or periodic storage of high river discharges, agriculture in an increasingly saline coastal area, and the maintenance of the coastline by beach nourishments. These strategic choices have to be complemented by no-regret measures such as spatial reservations for future sand extraction (for beach nourishments) and future expansion of flood defenses, water discharge, and water storage. In addition, it is advised to include flexibility in the design of new infrastructure. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:35:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8fb21db5ee1b4b2a8289356bbd8f127c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:35:42Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-8fb21db5ee1b4b2a8289356bbd8f127c2023-11-23T13:33:41ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-05-011410152710.3390/w14101527Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The NetherlandsJos van Alphen0Marjolijn Haasnoot1Ferdinand Diermanse2Staff Delta Programme Commissioner, 2511 WB The Hague, The NetherlandsDeltares, 2600 MH Delft, The NetherlandsDeltares, 2600 MH Delft, The NetherlandsRecent observations and publications have presented the possibility of a high and accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) later this century due to ice sheet instability and retreat in Antarctica. Under a high warming scenario, this may result in a sea level in 2100 that is up to 2 m higher than present and 5 m in 2150. The large uncertainties in these projections significantly increase the challenge for investment planning in coastal strategies in densely populated coastal zones such as the Netherlands. In this paper, we present the results of two studies that were carried out within the framework of the Dutch Delta Programme. The first study showed that it is not only the absolute SLR that presents a challenge but also the annual rate of rise. The latter impacts the lifetime of constructions such as barriers and pumping stations. When the rate of sea-level rise increases up to several centimeters per year, the intended lifetime of a flood defense structure may be reduced from a century to several decades. This new challenge requires new technologies, experiments, strategies, and governance. The second study explored different strategies for the long term to adapt to high SLR (>1 m) and assessed the consequences thereof on adaptation and developments in the coming 2–3 decades. We believe that strategic choices have to be made regarding the permanent closure of estuaries, the pumping or periodic storage of high river discharges, agriculture in an increasingly saline coastal area, and the maintenance of the coastline by beach nourishments. These strategic choices have to be complemented by no-regret measures such as spatial reservations for future sand extraction (for beach nourishments) and future expansion of flood defenses, water discharge, and water storage. In addition, it is advised to include flexibility in the design of new infrastructure.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/10/1527sea-level riseadaptationflood riskwater resourceslow-lying coasts |
| spellingShingle | Jos van Alphen Marjolijn Haasnoot Ferdinand Diermanse Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands Water sea-level rise adaptation flood risk water resources low-lying coasts |
| title | Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands |
| title_full | Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands |
| title_fullStr | Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands |
| title_short | Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands |
| title_sort | uncertain accelerated sea level rise potential consequences and adaptive strategies in the netherlands |
| topic | sea-level rise adaptation flood risk water resources low-lying coasts |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/10/1527 |
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