Proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors
This research addresses an evaluation method of business value considering risk-hedging options from the first stage of the product development. A scenario planning method is introduced into the estimating method of the business value in order to identify uncertain factors, which affect to the busin...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Japanese |
| Published: |
The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers
2017-12-01
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| Series: | Nihon Kikai Gakkai ronbunshu |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/transjsme/84/857/84_17-00270/_pdf/-char/en |
| _version_ | 1797989177617285120 |
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| author | Takao EGUCHI Takeshi MATSUO Ryo MURAYA Tsuyoshi KOGA |
| author_facet | Takao EGUCHI Takeshi MATSUO Ryo MURAYA Tsuyoshi KOGA |
| author_sort | Takao EGUCHI |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This research addresses an evaluation method of business value considering risk-hedging options from the first stage of the product development. A scenario planning method is introduced into the estimating method of the business value in order to identify uncertain factors, which affect to the business value. Generally, the scenario planning method has a weak point that it is difficult to apply its result into the project plan, because the specified factors are relatively qualitative. Proposed uncertainty analysis organizes the qualitative factors into four types of stochastic distributions. By combining the risk-hedge options and probabilistic distributions, a decision tree diagram, which contains the numerical estimated values about product development project, is calculated. The decision tree diagram describes project's EPV (Expected Present Value), so that the best combination of options is derived. The proposed method is applied to the i-Painter development project, which is automatic repairing robot of the buildings as an example. Two risks about future technological change in painting mechanics and flooding around factory are identified, calculated, and compared. The application result shows that the proposed method can surely help the development member to specify the economical external element change. In addition, the result indicates that the best business value is estimated and best risk hedge option can be calculated. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T08:15:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8fc3686a1078438098355cd121f4d6e5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2187-9761 |
| language | Japanese |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T08:15:00Z |
| publishDate | 2017-12-01 |
| publisher | The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nihon Kikai Gakkai ronbunshu |
| spelling | doaj.art-8fc3686a1078438098355cd121f4d6e52022-12-22T04:35:11ZjpnThe Japan Society of Mechanical EngineersNihon Kikai Gakkai ronbunshu2187-97612017-12-018485717-0027017-0027010.1299/transjsme.17-00270transjsmeProposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factorsTakao EGUCHI0Takeshi MATSUO1Ryo MURAYA2Tsuyoshi KOGA3SHIKO RESEARCH CO., LTD.Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yamaguchi UniversityDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Yamaguchi UniversityDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Yamaguchi UniversityThis research addresses an evaluation method of business value considering risk-hedging options from the first stage of the product development. A scenario planning method is introduced into the estimating method of the business value in order to identify uncertain factors, which affect to the business value. Generally, the scenario planning method has a weak point that it is difficult to apply its result into the project plan, because the specified factors are relatively qualitative. Proposed uncertainty analysis organizes the qualitative factors into four types of stochastic distributions. By combining the risk-hedge options and probabilistic distributions, a decision tree diagram, which contains the numerical estimated values about product development project, is calculated. The decision tree diagram describes project's EPV (Expected Present Value), so that the best combination of options is derived. The proposed method is applied to the i-Painter development project, which is automatic repairing robot of the buildings as an example. Two risks about future technological change in painting mechanics and flooding around factory are identified, calculated, and compared. The application result shows that the proposed method can surely help the development member to specify the economical external element change. In addition, the result indicates that the best business value is estimated and best risk hedge option can be calculated.https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/transjsme/84/857/84_17-00270/_pdf/-char/enproduct developmentuncertaintyscenario plannningdecision treereal optionbusiness value |
| spellingShingle | Takao EGUCHI Takeshi MATSUO Ryo MURAYA Tsuyoshi KOGA Proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors Nihon Kikai Gakkai ronbunshu product development uncertainty scenario plannning decision tree real option business value |
| title | Proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors |
| title_full | Proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors |
| title_fullStr | Proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors |
| title_short | Proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors |
| title_sort | proposal of a process model for evaluation of business value which quantifies uncertainties of external environmental factors |
| topic | product development uncertainty scenario plannning decision tree real option business value |
| url | https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/transjsme/84/857/84_17-00270/_pdf/-char/en |
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