Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
Brazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and chang...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499/full |
| _version_ | 1798031753116385280 |
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| author | Mári Ândrea Feldman Firpo Bruno dos Santos Guimarães Leydson Galvíncio Dantas Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da Silva Lincoln Muniz Alves Robin Chadwick Robin Chadwick Marta Pereira Llopart Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira |
| author_facet | Mári Ândrea Feldman Firpo Bruno dos Santos Guimarães Leydson Galvíncio Dantas Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da Silva Lincoln Muniz Alves Robin Chadwick Robin Chadwick Marta Pereira Llopart Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira |
| author_sort | Mári Ândrea Feldman Firpo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Brazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the skill of the state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating regional climate variability over Brazil during the present-day period. Different statistical analyses were employed to identify systematic biases and to choose the best subset of models to reduce uncertainties. The results show that models perform better for winter than summer precipitation, consistent with previous results in the literature. In both seasons, the worst performances were found for Northeast Brazil. Results also show that the models present deficiencies in simulating temperature over Amazonian regions. A good overall performance for precipitation and temperature in the La Plata Basin was found, in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the models with the highest ability in simulating monthly rainfall, aggregating all five Brazilian regions, were HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and INM-CM4-8, while for monthly temperatures, they were CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, and HadGEM3-GC31-MM. The application of these results spans both past and possible future climates, supporting climate impact studies and providing information to climate policy and adaptation activities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:02:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-90177b0913074544a0da97ccce656acc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:02:39Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-90177b0913074544a0da97ccce656acc2022-12-22T04:05:32ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532022-09-01410.3389/fclim.2022.948499948499Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in BrazilMári Ândrea Feldman Firpo0Bruno dos Santos Guimarães1Leydson Galvíncio Dantas2Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da Silva3Lincoln Muniz Alves4Robin Chadwick5Robin Chadwick6Marta Pereira Llopart7Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira8Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, BrazilUnidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Campina Grande, BrazilInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute, Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United KingdomUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Bauru, BrazilInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilBrazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the skill of the state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating regional climate variability over Brazil during the present-day period. Different statistical analyses were employed to identify systematic biases and to choose the best subset of models to reduce uncertainties. The results show that models perform better for winter than summer precipitation, consistent with previous results in the literature. In both seasons, the worst performances were found for Northeast Brazil. Results also show that the models present deficiencies in simulating temperature over Amazonian regions. A good overall performance for precipitation and temperature in the La Plata Basin was found, in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the models with the highest ability in simulating monthly rainfall, aggregating all five Brazilian regions, were HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and INM-CM4-8, while for monthly temperatures, they were CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, and HadGEM3-GC31-MM. The application of these results spans both past and possible future climates, supporting climate impact studies and providing information to climate policy and adaptation activities.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499/fullSouth AmericaCMIP6climate changeprecipitationtemperatureclimate modeling |
| spellingShingle | Mári Ândrea Feldman Firpo Bruno dos Santos Guimarães Leydson Galvíncio Dantas Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da Silva Lincoln Muniz Alves Robin Chadwick Robin Chadwick Marta Pereira Llopart Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil Frontiers in Climate South America CMIP6 climate change precipitation temperature climate modeling |
| title | Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil |
| title_full | Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil |
| title_short | Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil |
| title_sort | assessment of cmip6 models performance in simulating present day climate in brazil |
| topic | South America CMIP6 climate change precipitation temperature climate modeling |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499/full |
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