Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks
This article aims to show that business plan risks are clearer and more consistent, compared with classical methodology, when evaluated through the multi-index methodology. To do so, it is necessary to identify the expectations of return and perceived risks in evaluating a business plan. To explain...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SAGE Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | SAGE Open |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244019900171 |
| _version_ | 1818555342739472384 |
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| author | Alceu Souza Ariane Maria Machado de Oliveira Dayla Karolina Fossile Emmanuel Óguchi Ogu Luciano Luiz Dalazen Claudimar Pereira da Veiga |
| author_facet | Alceu Souza Ariane Maria Machado de Oliveira Dayla Karolina Fossile Emmanuel Óguchi Ogu Luciano Luiz Dalazen Claudimar Pereira da Veiga |
| author_sort | Alceu Souza |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This article aims to show that business plan risks are clearer and more consistent, compared with classical methodology, when evaluated through the multi-index methodology. To do so, it is necessary to identify the expectations of return and perceived risks in evaluating a business plan. To explain the above statement, we used a case example of a manufacturing unit of purses made of tilapia leather in the city of Campo Mourão, Paraná State, Brazil. Relevant information was collected through documenting research and semi-structured interviews, which were conducted in 2016 and 2017. The adoption of the cost leadership strategy, practicable due to the presence of local production arrangements, proved crucial to this project’s viability. Following this strategy, the demand, initial investments, production costs, and selling price were estimated. The multi-index methodology was used for the generation and analysis of the return indicators vis-à-vis the perceived risks. The multi-index methodology perceptual map signals a medium/high return (return on investment assets = 23.71% per year) and that the perceived risks are compatible with profit expectations. The sensitivity analysis of the results, using the Monte Carlo method, shows that P(net present value ≤ 0) ≈ 0.0002, thus corroborating the decision to invest in this business. This article contributes to the literature on the use of existing productive arrangements in various stages of the production and marketing process and the use of an analysis methodology that leads decision-makers to specify the risks associated with their decision. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:52:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9030e60922b4479b9adec55e4f1b8608 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2158-2440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T09:52:07Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | SAGE Open |
| spelling | doaj.art-9030e60922b4479b9adec55e4f1b86082022-12-22T00:28:15ZengSAGE PublishingSAGE Open2158-24402020-01-011010.1177/2158244019900171Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived RisksAlceu Souza0Ariane Maria Machado de Oliveira1Dayla Karolina Fossile2Emmanuel Óguchi Ogu3Luciano Luiz Dalazen4Claudimar Pereira da Veiga5Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná, Curitiba, BrazilPontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná, Curitiba, BrazilPontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná, Curitiba, BrazilPontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná, Curitiba, BrazilPontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná, Curitiba, BrazilUniversidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, BrazilThis article aims to show that business plan risks are clearer and more consistent, compared with classical methodology, when evaluated through the multi-index methodology. To do so, it is necessary to identify the expectations of return and perceived risks in evaluating a business plan. To explain the above statement, we used a case example of a manufacturing unit of purses made of tilapia leather in the city of Campo Mourão, Paraná State, Brazil. Relevant information was collected through documenting research and semi-structured interviews, which were conducted in 2016 and 2017. The adoption of the cost leadership strategy, practicable due to the presence of local production arrangements, proved crucial to this project’s viability. Following this strategy, the demand, initial investments, production costs, and selling price were estimated. The multi-index methodology was used for the generation and analysis of the return indicators vis-à-vis the perceived risks. The multi-index methodology perceptual map signals a medium/high return (return on investment assets = 23.71% per year) and that the perceived risks are compatible with profit expectations. The sensitivity analysis of the results, using the Monte Carlo method, shows that P(net present value ≤ 0) ≈ 0.0002, thus corroborating the decision to invest in this business. This article contributes to the literature on the use of existing productive arrangements in various stages of the production and marketing process and the use of an analysis methodology that leads decision-makers to specify the risks associated with their decision.https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244019900171 |
| spellingShingle | Alceu Souza Ariane Maria Machado de Oliveira Dayla Karolina Fossile Emmanuel Óguchi Ogu Luciano Luiz Dalazen Claudimar Pereira da Veiga Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks SAGE Open |
| title | Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks |
| title_full | Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks |
| title_fullStr | Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks |
| title_short | Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks |
| title_sort | business plan analysis using multi index methodology expectations of return and perceived risks |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244019900171 |
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