Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria.
To compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug.Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austri...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2016-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5130206?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818290376778186752 |
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| author | Alex Gamma Roman Schleifer Wolfgang Weinmann Anna Buadze Michael Liebrenz |
| author_facet | Alex Gamma Roman Schleifer Wolfgang Weinmann Anna Buadze Michael Liebrenz |
| author_sort | Alex Gamma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug.Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria for the years 2004-2016. Google data was availably monthly. Crime data was available yearly, and monthly values were imputed.On the country level, internet search trends for "meth" roughly paralleled relevant criminal activity. State-level data, which was available for Austria, showed more heterogeneity. Cross-correlations for yearly data almost always peaked at a lag time of 0 and coefficients were mostly between 0.7 and 1.0 on the country level, and between 0.5 to 1.0 on the state level. Monthly cross-correlations based on imputed values were substantially lower, ranging from 0 to 0.6.These results encourage the further evaluation by law enforcement authorities of Google search activity as a possible predictor of methamphetamine-related crime. However, several limitations, in particular the crude temporal resolution of available crime data, precluded a detailed assessment of the relationship between internet search trends and the development of methamphetamine-related crime in central Europe. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T02:27:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9045815d653b44b2a5df647afef84a03 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T02:27:12Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-9045815d653b44b2a5df647afef84a032022-12-22T00:02:36ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032016-01-011111e016656610.1371/journal.pone.0166566Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria.Alex GammaRoman SchleiferWolfgang WeinmannAnna BuadzeMichael LiebrenzTo compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug.Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria for the years 2004-2016. Google data was availably monthly. Crime data was available yearly, and monthly values were imputed.On the country level, internet search trends for "meth" roughly paralleled relevant criminal activity. State-level data, which was available for Austria, showed more heterogeneity. Cross-correlations for yearly data almost always peaked at a lag time of 0 and coefficients were mostly between 0.7 and 1.0 on the country level, and between 0.5 to 1.0 on the state level. Monthly cross-correlations based on imputed values were substantially lower, ranging from 0 to 0.6.These results encourage the further evaluation by law enforcement authorities of Google search activity as a possible predictor of methamphetamine-related crime. However, several limitations, in particular the crude temporal resolution of available crime data, precluded a detailed assessment of the relationship between internet search trends and the development of methamphetamine-related crime in central Europe.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5130206?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Alex Gamma Roman Schleifer Wolfgang Weinmann Anna Buadze Michael Liebrenz Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. PLoS ONE |
| title | Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. |
| title_full | Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. |
| title_fullStr | Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. |
| title_short | Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. |
| title_sort | could google trends be used to predict methamphetamine related crime an analysis of search volume data in switzerland germany and austria |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5130206?pdf=render |
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