The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development
At present, the Russian economic situation is characterized by significant imbalances in regional development. So, the forecasting of the indexes of regional social and economic development has become especially relevant. The authors offer a technique of the forecasting of regional social and econ...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch
2017-03-01
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| Series: | Экономика региона |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.economyofregion.com/archive/2017/64/2899/pdf/ |
| _version_ | 1797722981931155456 |
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| author | Robert Mikhaylovich Nizhegorodtsev Elena Ivanovna Piskun Viktoriya Vladimirovna Kudrevich |
| author_facet | Robert Mikhaylovich Nizhegorodtsev Elena Ivanovna Piskun Viktoriya Vladimirovna Kudrevich |
| author_sort | Robert Mikhaylovich Nizhegorodtsev |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | At present, the Russian economic situation is characterized by significant imbalances in regional development. So, the
forecasting of the indexes of regional social and economic development has become especially relevant. The authors offer a
technique of the forecasting of regional social and economic development, it consists of two blocks. The first one is the estimation
and forecasting of the level of regional social and economic development. For the purposes of this block, we applied a method
of development level and some adaptive methods. The informative basis is the data on the social and economic development of
the Republic of Crimea. The change of the integrated index’s growth rate, which is used for the inertial and realistic scenarios,
defined the conclusions on the regional socio-economic development. The second block of this technique includes the estimation
and forecasting of the social and economic state of considered region. This block is based on the methods of cluster, discriminate
and adaptive analyses. The information basis is the data of the social and economic situation of 79 Russian regions for the last
14 years. On the basis of cluster analysis, we divide all Russian regions into two clusters according to their social and economic
position. Discriminate models allowed to determine the prospective rate of the Republic of Crimea. The adaptive methods made
possible the identification of the researched region to a certain cluster. In the article, the presented models support a complex
estimation of the level of regional socio-economic development in the current forecast period and can be considered as a tool of
decision-making support at the multivariate scenario analysis of the regional development strategy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T09:56:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9048f1e6a04a486c964e9c1bad0edbed |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-6414 2411-1406 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T09:56:36Z |
| publishDate | 2017-03-01 |
| publisher | Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Экономика региона |
| spelling | doaj.art-9048f1e6a04a486c964e9c1bad0edbed2023-09-02T12:09:54ZengRussian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural BranchЭкономика региона2072-64142411-14062017-03-01131384810.17059/2017–1–4The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic DevelopmentRobert Mikhaylovich Nizhegorodtsev0Elena Ivanovna Piskun1Viktoriya Vladimirovna Kudrevich2 Institute of Control Sciences of RAS Sevastopol State University Sevastopol State UniversityAt present, the Russian economic situation is characterized by significant imbalances in regional development. So, the forecasting of the indexes of regional social and economic development has become especially relevant. The authors offer a technique of the forecasting of regional social and economic development, it consists of two blocks. The first one is the estimation and forecasting of the level of regional social and economic development. For the purposes of this block, we applied a method of development level and some adaptive methods. The informative basis is the data on the social and economic development of the Republic of Crimea. The change of the integrated index’s growth rate, which is used for the inertial and realistic scenarios, defined the conclusions on the regional socio-economic development. The second block of this technique includes the estimation and forecasting of the social and economic state of considered region. This block is based on the methods of cluster, discriminate and adaptive analyses. The information basis is the data of the social and economic situation of 79 Russian regions for the last 14 years. On the basis of cluster analysis, we divide all Russian regions into two clusters according to their social and economic position. Discriminate models allowed to determine the prospective rate of the Republic of Crimea. The adaptive methods made possible the identification of the researched region to a certain cluster. In the article, the presented models support a complex estimation of the level of regional socio-economic development in the current forecast period and can be considered as a tool of decision-making support at the multivariate scenario analysis of the regional development strategy.http://www.economyofregion.com/archive/2017/64/2899/pdf/regionsocial and economic developmentgrowth levelintegral indexforecastingmultidimentional analysisadaptive methodsdeveloping disbalances |
| spellingShingle | Robert Mikhaylovich Nizhegorodtsev Elena Ivanovna Piskun Viktoriya Vladimirovna Kudrevich The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development Экономика региона region social and economic development growth level integral index forecasting multidimentional analysis adaptive methods developing disbalances |
| title | The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development |
| title_full | The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development |
| title_fullStr | The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development |
| title_short | The Forecasting of Regional Social and Economic Development |
| title_sort | forecasting of regional social and economic development |
| topic | region social and economic development growth level integral index forecasting multidimentional analysis adaptive methods developing disbalances |
| url | http://www.economyofregion.com/archive/2017/64/2899/pdf/ |
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