Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil
Brazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cy...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-09-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/9/1388 |
| _version_ | 1797581315597402112 |
|---|---|
| author | Priscila Esposte Coutinho Marcio Cataldi |
| author_facet | Priscila Esposte Coutinho Marcio Cataldi |
| author_sort | Priscila Esposte Coutinho |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Brazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle are particularly concerning since water resources are used for electricity production, representing approximately 65% of the Brazilian electricity matrix. This study, therefore, aims to evaluate the extreme hydroclimatic trends of river basins located in the Northeast and South regions of the country. For this purpose, we carried out a flow analysis from 2020 to 2100, considering the precipitation data from the BCC CSM1-1, CCSM4, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M models presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used the SMAP rainfall-runoff model to obtain future flow projections for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As a result, we observed a trend toward water loss and the intensification of extreme events, with an increase in variability in both scenarios. We also noted that these climate models have difficulty reproducing the natural variability of southern basins, as parameterization of small-scale atmospheric processes prevents them from correctly projecting the precipitation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:03:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9084b4c4d9524ba7a166482eb633dcbd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:03:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-9084b4c4d9524ba7a166482eb633dcbd2023-11-19T09:30:36ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-09-01149138810.3390/atmos14091388Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of BrazilPriscila Esposte Coutinho0Marcio Cataldi1LAMMOC Group, Biosystems Engineering Graduate Program, Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal Fluminense University, Niterói 24210-240, BrazilMAR Group, Department of Physics, School of Chemistry, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, SpainBrazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle are particularly concerning since water resources are used for electricity production, representing approximately 65% of the Brazilian electricity matrix. This study, therefore, aims to evaluate the extreme hydroclimatic trends of river basins located in the Northeast and South regions of the country. For this purpose, we carried out a flow analysis from 2020 to 2100, considering the precipitation data from the BCC CSM1-1, CCSM4, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M models presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used the SMAP rainfall-runoff model to obtain future flow projections for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As a result, we observed a trend toward water loss and the intensification of extreme events, with an increase in variability in both scenarios. We also noted that these climate models have difficulty reproducing the natural variability of southern basins, as parameterization of small-scale atmospheric processes prevents them from correctly projecting the precipitation.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/9/1388SMAP modelCMIP5Parnaíba River basinSão Francisco River basinIguaçu River basinUruguay River basin |
| spellingShingle | Priscila Esposte Coutinho Marcio Cataldi Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil Atmosphere SMAP model CMIP5 Parnaíba River basin São Francisco River basin Iguaçu River basin Uruguay River basin |
| title | Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil |
| title_full | Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil |
| title_short | Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil |
| title_sort | evaluation of extreme hydroclimatic trends in river basins located in the northeast and south regions of brazil |
| topic | SMAP model CMIP5 Parnaíba River basin São Francisco River basin Iguaçu River basin Uruguay River basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/9/1388 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT priscilaespostecoutinho evaluationofextremehydroclimatictrendsinriverbasinslocatedinthenortheastandsouthregionsofbrazil AT marciocataldi evaluationofextremehydroclimatictrendsinriverbasinslocatedinthenortheastandsouthregionsofbrazil |