Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China
Abstract A transition away from coal power always maintains a high level of complexity as there are several overlapping considerations such as technical feasibility, economic costs, and environmental and health impacts. Here, we explore the cost-effectiveness uncertainty brought by policy implementa...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46549-5 |
| _version_ | 1797259161071779840 |
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| author | Xizhe Yan Dan Tong Yixuan Zheng Yang Liu Shaoqing Chen Xinying Qin Chuchu Chen Ruochong Xu Jing Cheng Qinren Shi Dongsheng Zheng Kebin He Qiang Zhang Yu Lei |
| author_facet | Xizhe Yan Dan Tong Yixuan Zheng Yang Liu Shaoqing Chen Xinying Qin Chuchu Chen Ruochong Xu Jing Cheng Qinren Shi Dongsheng Zheng Kebin He Qiang Zhang Yu Lei |
| author_sort | Xizhe Yan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A transition away from coal power always maintains a high level of complexity as there are several overlapping considerations such as technical feasibility, economic costs, and environmental and health impacts. Here, we explore the cost-effectiveness uncertainty brought by policy implementation disturbances of different coal power phaseout and new-built strategies (i.e., the disruption of phaseout priority) in China based on a developed unit-level uncertainty assessment framework. We reveal the opportunity and risk of coal transition decisions by employing preference analysis. We find that, the uncertainty of a policy implementation might lead to potential delays in yielding the initial positive annual net benefits. For example, a delay of six years might occur when implementing the prior phaseout practice. A certain level of risk remains in the implementation of the phaseout policy, as not all strategies can guarantee the cumulative positive net benefits from 2018–2060. Since the unit-level heterogeneities shape diverse orientation of the phaseout, the decision-making preferences would remarkably alter the selection of a coal power transition strategy. More strikingly, the cost-effectiveness uncertainty might lead to missed opportunities in identifying an optimal strategy. Our results highlight the importance of minimizing the policy implementation disturbance, which helps mitigate the risk of negative benefits and strengthen the practicality of phaseout decisions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:05:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-90ab8e17d4244d32bbba57d4b16d134c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T23:05:01Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-90ab8e17d4244d32bbba57d4b16d134c2024-03-17T12:30:56ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-03-0115111210.1038/s41467-024-46549-5Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in ChinaXizhe Yan0Dan Tong1Yixuan Zheng2Yang Liu3Shaoqing Chen4Xinying Qin5Chuchu Chen6Ruochong Xu7Jing Cheng8Qinren Shi9Dongsheng Zheng10Kebin He11Qiang Zhang12Yu Lei13Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityState Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Co-control, Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversitySchool of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityState Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Co-control, Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityState Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Co-control, Chinese Academy of Environmental PlanningAbstract A transition away from coal power always maintains a high level of complexity as there are several overlapping considerations such as technical feasibility, economic costs, and environmental and health impacts. Here, we explore the cost-effectiveness uncertainty brought by policy implementation disturbances of different coal power phaseout and new-built strategies (i.e., the disruption of phaseout priority) in China based on a developed unit-level uncertainty assessment framework. We reveal the opportunity and risk of coal transition decisions by employing preference analysis. We find that, the uncertainty of a policy implementation might lead to potential delays in yielding the initial positive annual net benefits. For example, a delay of six years might occur when implementing the prior phaseout practice. A certain level of risk remains in the implementation of the phaseout policy, as not all strategies can guarantee the cumulative positive net benefits from 2018–2060. Since the unit-level heterogeneities shape diverse orientation of the phaseout, the decision-making preferences would remarkably alter the selection of a coal power transition strategy. More strikingly, the cost-effectiveness uncertainty might lead to missed opportunities in identifying an optimal strategy. Our results highlight the importance of minimizing the policy implementation disturbance, which helps mitigate the risk of negative benefits and strengthen the practicality of phaseout decisions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46549-5 |
| spellingShingle | Xizhe Yan Dan Tong Yixuan Zheng Yang Liu Shaoqing Chen Xinying Qin Chuchu Chen Ruochong Xu Jing Cheng Qinren Shi Dongsheng Zheng Kebin He Qiang Zhang Yu Lei Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China Nature Communications |
| title | Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China |
| title_full | Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China |
| title_fullStr | Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China |
| title_short | Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China |
| title_sort | cost effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in china |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46549-5 |
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