Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries
In this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID-19, in top three sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction numb...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Hindawi Limited
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/7882843 |
| _version_ | 1811171046259163136 |
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| author | Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah John Coker Ayimah David Yaro Elikem Kofi Krampa Awura Amma Adomaa Danso |
| author_facet | Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah John Coker Ayimah David Yaro Elikem Kofi Krampa Awura Amma Adomaa Danso |
| author_sort | Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID-19, in top three sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction number’s sensitivity indices with regard to the model parameters were explicitly derived and then numerically evaluated. Numerical simulations of the suggested optimal control schemes in general showed a continuous result of decline at different anticipated extinction timelines. Another interesting observation was that in the simulation of sub-Saharan African dynamics, it was observed that the use of personal protective equipment was more effective than the use of vaccination, whereas in Europe, the use of vaccination was more effective than personal protective equipment. From the simulations, the conclusion is that COVID-19 will end before the 3rd year in Ghana, before the 6th year in Kenya, and before the 9th year in both Ethiopia and South Africa. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:07:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-90c0d3c23b734610bd6d92797bfa584f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1687-0042 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:07:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Hindawi Limited |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj.art-90c0d3c23b734610bd6d92797bfa584f2023-02-06T01:40:34ZengHindawi LimitedJournal of Applied Mathematics1687-00422023-01-01202310.1155/2023/7882843Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European CountriesSaviour Worlanyo Akuamoah0John Coker Ayimah1David Yaro2Elikem Kofi Krampa3Awura Amma Adomaa Danso4Faculty of Applied Sciences and TechnologyFaculty of Applied Sciences and TechnologySchool of Applied Sciences and TechnologyFaculty of Applied Sciences and TechnologyFaculty of Applied Sciences and TechnologyIn this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID-19, in top three sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction number’s sensitivity indices with regard to the model parameters were explicitly derived and then numerically evaluated. Numerical simulations of the suggested optimal control schemes in general showed a continuous result of decline at different anticipated extinction timelines. Another interesting observation was that in the simulation of sub-Saharan African dynamics, it was observed that the use of personal protective equipment was more effective than the use of vaccination, whereas in Europe, the use of vaccination was more effective than personal protective equipment. From the simulations, the conclusion is that COVID-19 will end before the 3rd year in Ghana, before the 6th year in Kenya, and before the 9th year in both Ethiopia and South Africa.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/7882843 |
| spellingShingle | Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah John Coker Ayimah David Yaro Elikem Kofi Krampa Awura Amma Adomaa Danso Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| title | Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries |
| title_full | Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries |
| title_fullStr | Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries |
| title_short | Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries |
| title_sort | predicting covid 19 pandemic endpoint in some sub saharan african and european countries |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/7882843 |
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