Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times?
Abstract Purpose Travel time predictions are of importance for individual trip planning as well as for logistics applications. Since travel time and travel speed have a one-one correspondence, the modeller has the choice to model travel times directly or model the corresponding travel speeds and inf...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2018-10-01
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| Series: | European Transport Research Review |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-018-0315-7 |
| _version_ | 1811232861097820160 |
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| author | Dietmar Bauer Mirsad Tulic |
| author_facet | Dietmar Bauer Mirsad Tulic |
| author_sort | Dietmar Bauer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Purpose Travel time predictions are of importance for individual trip planning as well as for logistics applications. Since travel time and travel speed have a one-one correspondence, the modeller has the choice to model travel times directly or model the corresponding travel speeds and infer the associated time from the speed predictions. A priori it is not clear which of these is the superior approach. In this paper we investigate the implications of the choice of the methodology for the accuracy of the travel time predictions. Methods For a selection of links, travel time prediction models, both in a direct way as well as indirectly via the implied link travel speeds, are obtained. The respective predictions are compared on a validation data set with respect to their accuracy as measured by mean error, root mean square error, mean percentage error as well as mean absolute percentage error. Additionally, the accuracy of route travel time predictions is evaluated based on the raw GPS data from the floating taxis. Results The empirical results overwhelmingly make the case for using direct modelling if the goal of prediction is to obtain a RMSE-optimal prediction. If the MAPE is to be minimized, however, the indirect method provides the better results. Conclusion Thus the goal of the prediction determines the better method of modelling: if one is interested in minimizing the RMSE, then, for the data investigated in this paper, the direct method should be selected. However, if one is interested in obtaining a small MAPE, the indirect method achieves better results. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:11:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-90e42b82e57d4e15a371bb565812390d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1867-0717 1866-8887 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:11:27Z |
| publishDate | 2018-10-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | European Transport Research Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-90e42b82e57d4e15a371bb565812390d2022-12-22T03:35:37ZengSpringerOpenEuropean Transport Research Review1867-07171866-88872018-10-0110211210.1186/s12544-018-0315-7Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times?Dietmar Bauer0Mirsad Tulic1Bielefeld UniversityAIT Austrian Institute of TechnologyAbstract Purpose Travel time predictions are of importance for individual trip planning as well as for logistics applications. Since travel time and travel speed have a one-one correspondence, the modeller has the choice to model travel times directly or model the corresponding travel speeds and infer the associated time from the speed predictions. A priori it is not clear which of these is the superior approach. In this paper we investigate the implications of the choice of the methodology for the accuracy of the travel time predictions. Methods For a selection of links, travel time prediction models, both in a direct way as well as indirectly via the implied link travel speeds, are obtained. The respective predictions are compared on a validation data set with respect to their accuracy as measured by mean error, root mean square error, mean percentage error as well as mean absolute percentage error. Additionally, the accuracy of route travel time predictions is evaluated based on the raw GPS data from the floating taxis. Results The empirical results overwhelmingly make the case for using direct modelling if the goal of prediction is to obtain a RMSE-optimal prediction. If the MAPE is to be minimized, however, the indirect method provides the better results. Conclusion Thus the goal of the prediction determines the better method of modelling: if one is interested in minimizing the RMSE, then, for the data investigated in this paper, the direct method should be selected. However, if one is interested in obtaining a small MAPE, the indirect method achieves better results.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-018-0315-7Travel time predictionNavigationRoutingFloating taxi data |
| spellingShingle | Dietmar Bauer Mirsad Tulic Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times? European Transport Research Review Travel time prediction Navigation Routing Floating taxi data |
| title | Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times? |
| title_full | Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times? |
| title_fullStr | Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times? |
| title_short | Travel time predictions: should one model speeds or travel times? |
| title_sort | travel time predictions should one model speeds or travel times |
| topic | Travel time prediction Navigation Routing Floating taxi data |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12544-018-0315-7 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dietmarbauer traveltimepredictionsshouldonemodelspeedsortraveltimes AT mirsadtulic traveltimepredictionsshouldonemodelspeedsortraveltimes |