Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard
We evaluated a novel tool that predicts possible maternity den habitat of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) based on a physical snow transport model, a digital terrain model and weather data. We observed and compared den locations in three important denning areas in east Svalbard (Kongsøya, n = 288;...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Norwegian Polar Institute
2020-03-01
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| Series: | Polar Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3447/10243 |
| _version_ | 1818084520162754560 |
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| author | Benjamin Merkel Jon Aars Glen E. Liston |
| author_facet | Benjamin Merkel Jon Aars Glen E. Liston |
| author_sort | Benjamin Merkel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We evaluated a novel tool that predicts possible maternity den habitat of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) based on a physical snow transport model, a digital terrain model and weather data. We observed and compared den locations in three important denning areas in east Svalbard (Kongsøya, n = 288; Svenskøya, n = 86; Hopen, n = 115) with modelled snowdrift distributions for 24 years. Accounting for a likely position uncertainty of 100 m, 69% of all dens were located within year-specific modelled snowdrifts. These covered on average 1.8%, 2.1% and 24.7% of the three study islands, respectively. Our snowdrift model accurately predicted maternity den positions (R2 = 0.42, area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.85). A model based on slope and altitude, also predicted den positions reasonably well (R2 = 0.35, AUC = 0.88). Habitat maps identifying both current and future areas for maternity denning will become important in managing the Barents Sea population as well as other Arctic populations where changes in sea-ice conditions alter the accessibility to traditional denning areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T19:55:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-90f716e02a4e4560a50888ceae79867a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1751-8369 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T19:55:11Z |
| publishDate | 2020-03-01 |
| publisher | Norwegian Polar Institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Polar Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-90f716e02a4e4560a50888ceae79867a2022-12-22T01:35:40ZengNorwegian Polar InstitutePolar Research1751-83692020-03-013901910.33265/polar.v39.34473447Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east SvalbardBenjamin Merkel0Jon Aars1Glen E. Liston2Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, NorwayNorwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, NorwayCooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USAWe evaluated a novel tool that predicts possible maternity den habitat of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) based on a physical snow transport model, a digital terrain model and weather data. We observed and compared den locations in three important denning areas in east Svalbard (Kongsøya, n = 288; Svenskøya, n = 86; Hopen, n = 115) with modelled snowdrift distributions for 24 years. Accounting for a likely position uncertainty of 100 m, 69% of all dens were located within year-specific modelled snowdrifts. These covered on average 1.8%, 2.1% and 24.7% of the three study islands, respectively. Our snowdrift model accurately predicted maternity den positions (R2 = 0.42, area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.85). A model based on slope and altitude, also predicted den positions reasonably well (R2 = 0.35, AUC = 0.88). Habitat maps identifying both current and future areas for maternity denning will become important in managing the Barents Sea population as well as other Arctic populations where changes in sea-ice conditions alter the accessibility to traditional denning areas.https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3447/10243climate changereproductionsnowdens-3dsnowdrift modelterrain modeltopography |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin Merkel Jon Aars Glen E. Liston Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard Polar Research climate change reproduction snowdens-3d snowdrift model terrain model topography |
| title | Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard |
| title_full | Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard |
| title_fullStr | Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard |
| title_short | Modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east Svalbard |
| title_sort | modelling polar bear maternity den habitat in east svalbard |
| topic | climate change reproduction snowdens-3d snowdrift model terrain model topography |
| url | https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3447/10243 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT benjaminmerkel modellingpolarbearmaternitydenhabitatineastsvalbard AT jonaars modellingpolarbearmaternitydenhabitatineastsvalbard AT gleneliston modellingpolarbearmaternitydenhabitatineastsvalbard |