Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming
Extreme heat, particularly if combined with humidity, poses a severe risk to human health. To estimate future global risk of extreme heat with humidity on health, we calculate indicators of heat stress that have been commonly used: the Heat Index, the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Wet-Bulb Temp...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9 |
| _version_ | 1797746953682944000 |
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| author | Nicolas Freychet Gabriele C Hegerl Natalie S Lord Y T Eunice Lo Dann Mitchell Matthew Collins |
| author_facet | Nicolas Freychet Gabriele C Hegerl Natalie S Lord Y T Eunice Lo Dann Mitchell Matthew Collins |
| author_sort | Nicolas Freychet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Extreme heat, particularly if combined with humidity, poses a severe risk to human health. To estimate future global risk of extreme heat with humidity on health, we calculate indicators of heat stress that have been commonly used: the Heat Index, the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Wet-Bulb Temperature, from the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) projections. We analyse how and where different levels of heat stress hazards will change, from severe to deadly, and how results are sensitive to the choice of the index used. We evaluate this risk at country-level and use population and GDP $|$ PPP growth scenario to estimate the vulnerability of each nation. Consistent with previous studies, we find that South and East Asia, and the Middle-East, are highly exposed to heat stress hazards, and that this exposure increases by 20%–60% with global mean temperature change from 1.5 to 3 ^∘ C. However, we also find substantial increases in heat health risk for some vulnerable countries with less adaptive capacity, such as West Africa, and Central and South America. For these regions, about 20 to more than 50% of the population could be exposed to severe heat stress each year on average, independent of the index used. For global warming of 3 ^∘ , European countries and the USA will also be exposed several times per year to conditions with daily mean heat stress level equal to the maximum heat stress of the 2003 heat wave. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:44:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9108f2b17c214e8db9ac59af29e19c1a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:44:13Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-9108f2b17c214e8db9ac59af29e19c1a2023-08-09T15:32:31ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117606404910.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warmingNicolas Freychet0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2207-4425Gabriele C Hegerl1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4159-1295Natalie S Lord2Y T Eunice Lo3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-7272Dann Mitchell4Matthew Collins5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3785-6008School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomSchool of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomSchool of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomSchool of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter , Exeter, United KingdomExtreme heat, particularly if combined with humidity, poses a severe risk to human health. To estimate future global risk of extreme heat with humidity on health, we calculate indicators of heat stress that have been commonly used: the Heat Index, the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Wet-Bulb Temperature, from the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) projections. We analyse how and where different levels of heat stress hazards will change, from severe to deadly, and how results are sensitive to the choice of the index used. We evaluate this risk at country-level and use population and GDP $|$ PPP growth scenario to estimate the vulnerability of each nation. Consistent with previous studies, we find that South and East Asia, and the Middle-East, are highly exposed to heat stress hazards, and that this exposure increases by 20%–60% with global mean temperature change from 1.5 to 3 ^∘ C. However, we also find substantial increases in heat health risk for some vulnerable countries with less adaptive capacity, such as West Africa, and Central and South America. For these regions, about 20 to more than 50% of the population could be exposed to severe heat stress each year on average, independent of the index used. For global warming of 3 ^∘ , European countries and the USA will also be exposed several times per year to conditions with daily mean heat stress level equal to the maximum heat stress of the 2003 heat wave.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9reliablyheat stressclimate changeclimate impactCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Nicolas Freychet Gabriele C Hegerl Natalie S Lord Y T Eunice Lo Dann Mitchell Matthew Collins Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming Environmental Research Letters reliably heat stress climate change climate impact CMIP6 |
| title | Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming |
| title_full | Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming |
| title_fullStr | Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming |
| title_short | Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming |
| title_sort | robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming |
| topic | reliably heat stress climate change climate impact CMIP6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9 |
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