A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER Database
Background: Bone metastasis (BM) is one of the typical metastatic types of head and neck cancer (HNC). The occurrence of BM prevents the HNC patients from obtaining a long survival period. Early assessment of the possibility of BM could bring more therapy options for HNC patients, as well as a longe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Genetics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fgene.2022.865418/full |
| _version_ | 1828346449841094656 |
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| author | Chao Huang Jialin He Zichuan Ding Hao Li Zongke Zhou Xiaojun Shi |
| author_facet | Chao Huang Jialin He Zichuan Ding Hao Li Zongke Zhou Xiaojun Shi |
| author_sort | Chao Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Bone metastasis (BM) is one of the typical metastatic types of head and neck cancer (HNC). The occurrence of BM prevents the HNC patients from obtaining a long survival period. Early assessment of the possibility of BM could bring more therapy options for HNC patients, as well as a longer overall survival time. This study aims to identify independent BM risk factors and develop a diagnostic nomogram to predict BM risk in HNC patients.Methods: Patients diagnosed with HNC between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively evaluated in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and then eligible patients were enrolled in our study. First, those patients were randomly assigned to training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Second, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the HNC patients’ independent BM risk factors. Finally, the diagnostic nomogram’s risk prediction capacity and clinical application value were assessed using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves.Results: 39,561 HNC patients were enrolled in the study, and they were randomly divided into two sets: training (n = 27,693) and validation (n = 11,868). According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, race, primary site, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, and distant metastases (brain, liver, and lung) were all independent risk predictors of BM in HNC patients. The diagnostic nomogram was created using the above independent risk factors and had a high predictive capacity. The training and validation sets’ area under the curves (AUC) were 0.893 and 0.850, respectively. The AUC values of independent risk predictors were all smaller than that of the constructed diagnostic nomogram. Meanwhile, the calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the diagnostic nomogram.Conclusion: The diagnostic nomogram can quickly assess the probability of BM in HNC patients, help doctors allocate medical resources more reasonably, and achieve personalized management, especially for HNC patients with a potentially high BM risk, thus acquiring better early education, early detection, and early diagnosis and treatment to maximize the benefits of patients. |
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| issn | 1664-8021 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T00:26:30Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
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| series | Frontiers in Genetics |
| spelling | doaj.art-9121eface98d4af7863aeb58fd7fb1582022-12-22T02:22:42ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Genetics1664-80212022-05-011310.3389/fgene.2022.865418865418A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER DatabaseChao Huang0Jialin He1Zichuan Ding2Hao Li3Zongke Zhou4Xiaojun Shi5Department of Orthopedics, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaBackground: Bone metastasis (BM) is one of the typical metastatic types of head and neck cancer (HNC). The occurrence of BM prevents the HNC patients from obtaining a long survival period. Early assessment of the possibility of BM could bring more therapy options for HNC patients, as well as a longer overall survival time. This study aims to identify independent BM risk factors and develop a diagnostic nomogram to predict BM risk in HNC patients.Methods: Patients diagnosed with HNC between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively evaluated in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and then eligible patients were enrolled in our study. First, those patients were randomly assigned to training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Second, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the HNC patients’ independent BM risk factors. Finally, the diagnostic nomogram’s risk prediction capacity and clinical application value were assessed using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves.Results: 39,561 HNC patients were enrolled in the study, and they were randomly divided into two sets: training (n = 27,693) and validation (n = 11,868). According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, race, primary site, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, and distant metastases (brain, liver, and lung) were all independent risk predictors of BM in HNC patients. The diagnostic nomogram was created using the above independent risk factors and had a high predictive capacity. The training and validation sets’ area under the curves (AUC) were 0.893 and 0.850, respectively. The AUC values of independent risk predictors were all smaller than that of the constructed diagnostic nomogram. Meanwhile, the calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the diagnostic nomogram.Conclusion: The diagnostic nomogram can quickly assess the probability of BM in HNC patients, help doctors allocate medical resources more reasonably, and achieve personalized management, especially for HNC patients with a potentially high BM risk, thus acquiring better early education, early detection, and early diagnosis and treatment to maximize the benefits of patients.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fgene.2022.865418/fullhead and neck cancernomogramriskbone metastasisSEER |
| spellingShingle | Chao Huang Jialin He Zichuan Ding Hao Li Zongke Zhou Xiaojun Shi A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER Database Frontiers in Genetics head and neck cancer nomogram risk bone metastasis SEER |
| title | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER Database |
| title_full | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER Database |
| title_fullStr | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER Database |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER Database |
| title_short | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Bone Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Real-World Data Retrospective Cohort Study From SEER Database |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting the risk of bone metastasis in newly diagnosed head and neck cancer patients a real world data retrospective cohort study from seer database |
| topic | head and neck cancer nomogram risk bone metastasis SEER |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fgene.2022.865418/full |
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