Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa
The availability of seasonal weather forecast information in Africa has potential to provide advanced early warning of rainfall variability, informing preparedness actions to minimise adverse impacts. Obtaining accurate forecast information for the spatial scales at which decisions are made is vital...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9 |
| _version_ | 1827869960869773312 |
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| author | Matthew Young Viola Heinrich Emily Black Dagmawi Asfaw |
| author_facet | Matthew Young Viola Heinrich Emily Black Dagmawi Asfaw |
| author_sort | Matthew Young |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The availability of seasonal weather forecast information in Africa has potential to provide advanced early warning of rainfall variability, informing preparedness actions to minimise adverse impacts. Obtaining accurate forecast information for the spatial scales at which decisions are made is vital. Here we examine the impact of spatial scales on the utility of seasonal rainfall forecasts in Africa. Using observations alongside seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we combine measures of local representativity and skill to assess optimal spatial scales for anticipating local rainfall conditions. The results reveal regions where spatial aggregation of gridded forecast data improves the quality of information provided at the local scale, and regions where forecasts have useful skill without aggregation. More generally this study presents a novel approach for evaluating the utility of forecast information which is applicable both globally and at all timescales. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-914dfb868fd74fd98bf928aec991dd2a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:04Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-914dfb868fd74fd98bf928aec991dd2a2023-08-09T15:08:15ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115909402310.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over AfricaMatthew Young0Viola Heinrich1Emily Black2Dagmawi Asfaw3Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science , Reading, United KingdomSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science , Reading, United KingdomDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomThe availability of seasonal weather forecast information in Africa has potential to provide advanced early warning of rainfall variability, informing preparedness actions to minimise adverse impacts. Obtaining accurate forecast information for the spatial scales at which decisions are made is vital. Here we examine the impact of spatial scales on the utility of seasonal rainfall forecasts in Africa. Using observations alongside seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we combine measures of local representativity and skill to assess optimal spatial scales for anticipating local rainfall conditions. The results reveal regions where spatial aggregation of gridded forecast data improves the quality of information provided at the local scale, and regions where forecasts have useful skill without aggregation. More generally this study presents a novel approach for evaluating the utility of forecast information which is applicable both globally and at all timescales.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9africaseasonal forecastsdrought monitoringearly warningrainfall |
| spellingShingle | Matthew Young Viola Heinrich Emily Black Dagmawi Asfaw Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa Environmental Research Letters africa seasonal forecasts drought monitoring early warning rainfall |
| title | Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa |
| title_full | Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa |
| title_fullStr | Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa |
| title_short | Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa |
| title_sort | optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over africa |
| topic | africa seasonal forecasts drought monitoring early warning rainfall |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9 |
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