Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades
Climate change is resulting in global changes to sea level and wave climates, which in many locations significantly increase the probability of erosion, flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Therefore, there is a pressing societal need to be able to forecast the morphological...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2754720523000057/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797828674200797184 |
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| author | Emily Hunt Mark Davidson Edward C. C. Steele Jessica D. Amies Timothy Scott Paul Russell |
| author_facet | Emily Hunt Mark Davidson Edward C. C. Steele Jessica D. Amies Timothy Scott Paul Russell |
| author_sort | Emily Hunt |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is resulting in global changes to sea level and wave climates, which in many locations significantly increase the probability of erosion, flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Therefore, there is a pressing societal need to be able to forecast the morphological evolution of our coastlines over a broad range of timescales, spanning days-to-decades, facilitating more focused, appropriate and cost-effective management interventions and data-informed planning to support the development of coastal environments. A wide range of modelling approaches have been used with varying degrees of success to assess both the detailed morphological evolution and/or simplified indicators of coastal erosion/accretion. This paper presents an overview of these modelling approaches, covering the full range of the complexity spectrum and summarising the advantages and disadvantages of each method. A focus is given to reduced-complexity modelling approaches, including models based on equilibrium concepts, which have emerged as a particularly promising methodology for the prediction of coastal change over multi-decadal timescales. The advantages of stable, computationally-efficient, reduced-complexity models must be balanced against the requirement for good generality and skill in diverse and complex coastal settings. Significant obstacles are also identified, limiting the generic application of models at regional and global scales. Challenges include the accurate long-term prediction of model forcing time-series in a changing climate, and accounting for processes that can largely be ignored in the shorter term but increase in importance in the long term. Further complications include coastal complexities, such as the accurate assessment of the impacts of headland bypassing. Additional complexities include complex structures and geology, mixed grain size, limited sediment supply, sources and sinks. It is concluded that with present computational resources, data availability limitations and process knowledge gaps, reduced-complexity modelling approaches currently offer the most promising solution to modelling shoreline evolution on daily-to-decadal timescales. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T13:08:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-919069b9809a4710aa8a7a1825d2133f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2754-7205 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T13:08:10Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures |
| spelling | doaj.art-919069b9809a4710aa8a7a1825d2133f2023-05-12T11:18:23ZengCambridge University PressCambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures2754-72052023-01-01110.1017/cft.2023.5Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decadesEmily Hunt0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7844-0001Mark Davidson1Edward C. C. Steele2Jessica D. Amies3Timothy Scott4Paul Russell5Coastal Processes Research Group, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UKCoastal Processes Research Group, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UKMet Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKMet Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKCoastal Processes Research Group, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UKCoastal Processes Research Group, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UKClimate change is resulting in global changes to sea level and wave climates, which in many locations significantly increase the probability of erosion, flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Therefore, there is a pressing societal need to be able to forecast the morphological evolution of our coastlines over a broad range of timescales, spanning days-to-decades, facilitating more focused, appropriate and cost-effective management interventions and data-informed planning to support the development of coastal environments. A wide range of modelling approaches have been used with varying degrees of success to assess both the detailed morphological evolution and/or simplified indicators of coastal erosion/accretion. This paper presents an overview of these modelling approaches, covering the full range of the complexity spectrum and summarising the advantages and disadvantages of each method. A focus is given to reduced-complexity modelling approaches, including models based on equilibrium concepts, which have emerged as a particularly promising methodology for the prediction of coastal change over multi-decadal timescales. The advantages of stable, computationally-efficient, reduced-complexity models must be balanced against the requirement for good generality and skill in diverse and complex coastal settings. Significant obstacles are also identified, limiting the generic application of models at regional and global scales. Challenges include the accurate long-term prediction of model forcing time-series in a changing climate, and accounting for processes that can largely be ignored in the shorter term but increase in importance in the long term. Further complications include coastal complexities, such as the accurate assessment of the impacts of headland bypassing. Additional complexities include complex structures and geology, mixed grain size, limited sediment supply, sources and sinks. It is concluded that with present computational resources, data availability limitations and process knowledge gaps, reduced-complexity modelling approaches currently offer the most promising solution to modelling shoreline evolution on daily-to-decadal timescales.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2754720523000057/type/journal_articlemodellingshoreline-changeforecastpredictionslong-termlarge-scaleclimate-impactssea-levelprojection |
| spellingShingle | Emily Hunt Mark Davidson Edward C. C. Steele Jessica D. Amies Timothy Scott Paul Russell Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures modelling shoreline-change forecast predictions long-term large-scale climate-impacts sea-level projection |
| title | Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades |
| title_full | Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades |
| title_fullStr | Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades |
| title_full_unstemmed | Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades |
| title_short | Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades |
| title_sort | shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades |
| topic | modelling shoreline-change forecast predictions long-term large-scale climate-impacts sea-level projection |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2754720523000057/type/journal_article |
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