Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco)
This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of mean monthly temperature in the Moulouya watershed of northeastern Morocco, highlighting associated trends. To this end, statistical methods widely recommended by climate researchers were adopted. We used monthly mean temperature data for the per...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Hindawi Limited
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/5027669 |
| _version_ | 1827010003357138944 |
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| author | Rachid Addou Khalid Obda Nir Y. Krakauer Mohamed Hanchane Ridouane Kessabi Bouchta El Khazzan Imad Eddine Achir |
| author_facet | Rachid Addou Khalid Obda Nir Y. Krakauer Mohamed Hanchane Ridouane Kessabi Bouchta El Khazzan Imad Eddine Achir |
| author_sort | Rachid Addou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of mean monthly temperature in the Moulouya watershed of northeastern Morocco, highlighting associated trends. To this end, statistical methods widely recommended by climate researchers were adopted. We used monthly mean temperature data for the period 1980–2020 from 9 measuring stations belonging to the Moulouya Watershed Agency (ABHM). These stations were rigorously selected, taking into account their reliability, the length of their records, and their geographical position in the basin. In addition, a quality test and homogenization of the temperature series were carried out using the Climatol tool. The results obtained show a significant upward trend in mean monthly temperature, mainly pronounced during the summer months, in the Moulouya watershed. In fact, Z values generally exceeded the 0.05 significance level at all stations during April, May, June, July, August, and October. According to the results of Sen’s slope test, mean monthly temperatures show an annual increase ranging from 0 to 0.13°C. The maximum magnitude of warming is recorded in July, specifically at Oujda Station. On an overall watershed scale, May, August, and July show a rapid warming trend, with average rates of 0.093, 0.086, and 0.08°C per year, respectively. By contrast, the series for the other months show no significant trend. Significant trend change points were also identified at watershed and station scales, mainly around 2000, primarily for accelerated warming of the summer months. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:59:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-91ab112ecfa24edc9f5e524f6dd88176 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-18T12:59:20Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Hindawi Limited |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj.art-91ab112ecfa24edc9f5e524f6dd881762024-11-02T03:56:44ZengHindawi LimitedAdvances in Meteorology1687-93172024-01-01202410.1155/2024/5027669Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco)Rachid Addou0Khalid Obda1Nir Y. Krakauer2Mohamed Hanchane3Ridouane Kessabi4Bouchta El Khazzan5Imad Eddine Achir6Department of GeographyDepartment of GeographyDepartment of Civil EngineeringDepartment of GeographyDepartment of GeographyDepartment of GeographyDepartment of GeographyThis study examines the spatiotemporal variability of mean monthly temperature in the Moulouya watershed of northeastern Morocco, highlighting associated trends. To this end, statistical methods widely recommended by climate researchers were adopted. We used monthly mean temperature data for the period 1980–2020 from 9 measuring stations belonging to the Moulouya Watershed Agency (ABHM). These stations were rigorously selected, taking into account their reliability, the length of their records, and their geographical position in the basin. In addition, a quality test and homogenization of the temperature series were carried out using the Climatol tool. The results obtained show a significant upward trend in mean monthly temperature, mainly pronounced during the summer months, in the Moulouya watershed. In fact, Z values generally exceeded the 0.05 significance level at all stations during April, May, June, July, August, and October. According to the results of Sen’s slope test, mean monthly temperatures show an annual increase ranging from 0 to 0.13°C. The maximum magnitude of warming is recorded in July, specifically at Oujda Station. On an overall watershed scale, May, August, and July show a rapid warming trend, with average rates of 0.093, 0.086, and 0.08°C per year, respectively. By contrast, the series for the other months show no significant trend. Significant trend change points were also identified at watershed and station scales, mainly around 2000, primarily for accelerated warming of the summer months.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/5027669 |
| spellingShingle | Rachid Addou Khalid Obda Nir Y. Krakauer Mohamed Hanchane Ridouane Kessabi Bouchta El Khazzan Imad Eddine Achir Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco) Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco) |
| title_full | Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco) |
| title_fullStr | Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco) |
| title_short | Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco) |
| title_sort | statistical analysis for the detection of change points and the evaluation of monthly mean temperature trends of the moulouya basin morocco |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/5027669 |
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