Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan
Abstract We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06° N, 123.81° E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47° N,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2023-03-01
|
| Series: | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00542-6 |
| _version_ | 1797863210193256448 |
|---|---|
| author | Yasunori Tohjima Yosuke Niwa Prabir K. Patra Hitoshi Mukai Toshinobu Machida Motoki Sasakawa Kazuhiro Tsuboi Kazuyuki Saito Akihiko Ito |
| author_facet | Yasunori Tohjima Yosuke Niwa Prabir K. Patra Hitoshi Mukai Toshinobu Machida Motoki Sasakawa Kazuhiro Tsuboi Kazuyuki Saito Akihiko Ito |
| author_sort | Yasunori Tohjima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06° N, 123.81° E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47° N, 123.01° E), Japan. These two remote islands are in the downwind region of continental East Asia during winter because of the East Asian monsoon. Previous studies have revealed that monthly averages of synoptic-scale variability ratios of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (ΔCO2/ΔCH4) observed at HAT and YON in JFM are sensitive to changes in continental emissions. From the analysis based on an atmospheric transport model with all components of CO2 and CH4 fluxes, we found that the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio was linearly related to the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China because calculating the variability ratio canceled out the transport influences. Using the simulated linear relationship, we converted the observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios into FFCO2/CH4 emission ratios in China. The change rates of the emission ratios for 2020–2022 were calculated relative to those for the preceding 9-year period (2011–2019), during which relatively stable ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios were observed. These changes in the emission ratios can be read as FFCO2 emission changes under the assumption of no interannual variations in CH4 emissions and biospheric CO2 fluxes for JFM. The resulting average changes in the FFCO2 emissions in January, February, and March 2020 were 17 ± 8%, − 36 ± 7%, and − 12 ± 8%, respectively, (− 10 ± 9% for JFM overall) relative to 2011–2019. These results were generally consistent with previous estimates. The emission changes for January, February, and March were 18 ± 8%, − 2 ± 10%, and 29 ± 12%, respectively, in 2021 (15 ± 10% for JFM overall) and 20 ± 9%, − 3 ± 10%, and − 10 ± 9%, respectively, in 2022 (2 ± 9% for JFM overall). These results suggest that the FFCO2 emissions from China rebounded to the normal level or set a new high record in early 2021 after a reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. In addition, the estimated reduction in March 2022 might be attributed to the influence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections in Shanghai. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:33:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-924148883c2f431fbcf788304e8ad703 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2197-4284 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T22:33:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-924148883c2f431fbcf788304e8ad7032023-03-22T12:40:49ZengSpringerOpenProgress in Earth and Planetary Science2197-42842023-03-0110111410.1186/s40645-023-00542-6Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, JapanYasunori Tohjima0Yosuke Niwa1Prabir K. Patra2Hitoshi Mukai3Toshinobu Machida4Motoki Sasakawa5Kazuhiro Tsuboi6Kazuyuki Saito7Akihiko Ito8National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Abstract We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06° N, 123.81° E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47° N, 123.01° E), Japan. These two remote islands are in the downwind region of continental East Asia during winter because of the East Asian monsoon. Previous studies have revealed that monthly averages of synoptic-scale variability ratios of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (ΔCO2/ΔCH4) observed at HAT and YON in JFM are sensitive to changes in continental emissions. From the analysis based on an atmospheric transport model with all components of CO2 and CH4 fluxes, we found that the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio was linearly related to the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China because calculating the variability ratio canceled out the transport influences. Using the simulated linear relationship, we converted the observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios into FFCO2/CH4 emission ratios in China. The change rates of the emission ratios for 2020–2022 were calculated relative to those for the preceding 9-year period (2011–2019), during which relatively stable ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios were observed. These changes in the emission ratios can be read as FFCO2 emission changes under the assumption of no interannual variations in CH4 emissions and biospheric CO2 fluxes for JFM. The resulting average changes in the FFCO2 emissions in January, February, and March 2020 were 17 ± 8%, − 36 ± 7%, and − 12 ± 8%, respectively, (− 10 ± 9% for JFM overall) relative to 2011–2019. These results were generally consistent with previous estimates. The emission changes for January, February, and March were 18 ± 8%, − 2 ± 10%, and 29 ± 12%, respectively, in 2021 (15 ± 10% for JFM overall) and 20 ± 9%, − 3 ± 10%, and − 10 ± 9%, respectively, in 2022 (2 ± 9% for JFM overall). These results suggest that the FFCO2 emissions from China rebounded to the normal level or set a new high record in early 2021 after a reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. In addition, the estimated reduction in March 2022 might be attributed to the influence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections in Shanghai.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00542-6Fossil fuel CO2 emissionsSynoptic-scale variationsAtmospheric CO2Atmospheric CH4COVID-19 lockdownEast Asian Monsoon |
| spellingShingle | Yasunori Tohjima Yosuke Niwa Prabir K. Patra Hitoshi Mukai Toshinobu Machida Motoki Sasakawa Kazuhiro Tsuboi Kazuyuki Saito Akihiko Ito Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan Progress in Earth and Planetary Science Fossil fuel CO2 emissions Synoptic-scale variations Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CH4 COVID-19 lockdown East Asian Monsoon |
| title | Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan |
| title_full | Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan |
| title_fullStr | Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan |
| title_short | Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan |
| title_sort | near real time estimation of fossil fuel co2 emissions from china based on atmospheric observations on hateruma and yonaguni islands japan |
| topic | Fossil fuel CO2 emissions Synoptic-scale variations Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CH4 COVID-19 lockdown East Asian Monsoon |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00542-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yasunoritohjima nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT yosukeniwa nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT prabirkpatra nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT hitoshimukai nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT toshinobumachida nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT motokisasakawa nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT kazuhirotsuboi nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT kazuyukisaito nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan AT akihikoito nearrealtimeestimationoffossilfuelco2emissionsfromchinabasedonatmosphericobservationsonhaterumaandyonaguniislandsjapan |