Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach
Abstract Predictive models for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are instrumental to understanding the potential geographic spread of VBDs and therefore serve as useful tools for public health decision-making. However, predicting the emergence of VBDs at the micro-, local, and regional levels presents ch...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2024-01-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08741-8 |
| _version_ | 1797355933767041024 |
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| author | Mariel Flores Lima Jacqueline Cotton Monique Marais Robert Faggian |
| author_facet | Mariel Flores Lima Jacqueline Cotton Monique Marais Robert Faggian |
| author_sort | Mariel Flores Lima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Predictive models for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are instrumental to understanding the potential geographic spread of VBDs and therefore serve as useful tools for public health decision-making. However, predicting the emergence of VBDs at the micro-, local, and regional levels presents challenges, as the importance of risk factors can vary spatially and temporally depending on climatic factors and vector and host abundance and preferences. We propose an expert-systems-based approach that uses an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) deployed within a geographic information system (GIS), to predict areas susceptible to the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) emergence. This modelling approach produces risk maps, identifying micro-level risk areas with the potential for disease emergence. The results revealed that climatic conditions, especially the minimum temperature and precipitation required for JEV transmission, contributed to high-risk conditions developed during January and March of 2022 in Victora. Compared to historical climate records, the risk of JEV emergence was increased in most parts of the state due to climate. Importantly, the model accurately predicted 7 out of the 8 local government areas that reported JEV-positive cases during the outbreak of 2022 in Victorian piggeries. This underscores the model’s potential as a reliable tool for supporting local risk assessments in the face of evolving climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:19:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-92636e4cf5914f70b1dc320d83ab73a0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:19:19Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-92636e4cf5914f70b1dc320d83ab73a02024-01-14T12:13:18ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342024-01-0124111710.1186/s12879-023-08741-8Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approachMariel Flores Lima0Jacqueline Cotton1Monique Marais2Robert Faggian3Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin UniversityNational Centre for Farmer Health, School of Medicine, Deakin UniversityCentre for Regional and Rural Futures, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin UniversityCentre for Regional and Rural Futures, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin UniversityAbstract Predictive models for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are instrumental to understanding the potential geographic spread of VBDs and therefore serve as useful tools for public health decision-making. However, predicting the emergence of VBDs at the micro-, local, and regional levels presents challenges, as the importance of risk factors can vary spatially and temporally depending on climatic factors and vector and host abundance and preferences. We propose an expert-systems-based approach that uses an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) deployed within a geographic information system (GIS), to predict areas susceptible to the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) emergence. This modelling approach produces risk maps, identifying micro-level risk areas with the potential for disease emergence. The results revealed that climatic conditions, especially the minimum temperature and precipitation required for JEV transmission, contributed to high-risk conditions developed during January and March of 2022 in Victora. Compared to historical climate records, the risk of JEV emergence was increased in most parts of the state due to climate. Importantly, the model accurately predicted 7 out of the 8 local government areas that reported JEV-positive cases during the outbreak of 2022 in Victorian piggeries. This underscores the model’s potential as a reliable tool for supporting local risk assessments in the face of evolving climate change.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08741-8Japanese encephalitis virusModellingGeographic information systemAnalytical hierarchy processClimate change |
| spellingShingle | Mariel Flores Lima Jacqueline Cotton Monique Marais Robert Faggian Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach BMC Infectious Diseases Japanese encephalitis virus Modelling Geographic information system Analytical hierarchy process Climate change |
| title | Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach |
| title_full | Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach |
| title_short | Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus in Victoria, Australia, using an expert-systems approach |
| title_sort | modelling the risk of japanese encephalitis virus in victoria australia using an expert systems approach |
| topic | Japanese encephalitis virus Modelling Geographic information system Analytical hierarchy process Climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08741-8 |
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