ARIMA forecast of Nigerian inflation rates with Covid-19 pandemic event in focus
We modelled Nigeria Inflation rate using univariate time series methodology. A data set covering January 2003 to June 2022 was divided into two time periods, vis-à-vis, Pre COVID-19 pandemic event period and the Combined period (combination of both pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods). This was done w...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
General Association of Economists from Romania
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Theoretical and Applied Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1702.pdf
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| Summary: | We modelled Nigeria Inflation rate using univariate time series methodology. A data set
covering January 2003 to June 2022 was divided into two time periods, vis-à-vis, Pre COVID-19
pandemic event period and the Combined period (combination of both pre-COVID-19 and
COVID-19 periods). This was done with a view to examining the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on
the data generation mechanism of Nigeria Inflation rate. The Inflation rate data was found to be
non-stationary and was appropriately differenced to attain stationarity. ARIMA models were fitted
for the two scenarios using Box Jenkins methodology. Appropriate diagnostic analysis was
conducted and the estimated models were used for forecasting. While the estimated model for Pre
COVID-19 event series yielded forecast rates that suggest an onward rise in Nigeria Inflation rate,
the Combined period model yielded forecast rates that suggest a downward movement of the
Inflation rate. |
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| ISSN: | 1841-8678 1844-0029 |