Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule
Rotavirus infection is a common cause of severe diarrheal disease and a major cause of deaths and hospitalizations among young children. Incidence of rotavirus has declined globally with increasing vaccine coverage. However, it remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income cou...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2022.2139097 |
| _version_ | 1827806347083644928 |
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| author | Nicholas Geard Richard Bradhurst Nefel Tellioglu Vicka Oktaria Jodie McVernon Amanda Handley Julie E. Bines |
| author_facet | Nicholas Geard Richard Bradhurst Nefel Tellioglu Vicka Oktaria Jodie McVernon Amanda Handley Julie E. Bines |
| author_sort | Nicholas Geard |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Rotavirus infection is a common cause of severe diarrheal disease and a major cause of deaths and hospitalizations among young children. Incidence of rotavirus has declined globally with increasing vaccine coverage. However, it remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries where vaccine access is limited and efficacy is lower. The oral human neonatal vaccine RV3-BB can be safely administered earlier than other vaccines, and recent trials in Indonesia have demonstrated high efficacy. In this study, we use a stochastic individual-based model of rotavirus transmission and disease to estimate the anticipated population-level impact of RV3-BB following delivery according to either an infant (2, 4, 6 months) and neonatal (0, 2, 4 months) schedule. Using our model, which incorporated an age- and household-structured population and estimates of vaccine efficacy derived from trial data, we found both delivery schedules to be effective at reducing infection and disease. We estimated 95–96% reductions in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age when vaccine coverage is 85%. We also estimate high levels of indirect protection from vaccination, including 78% reductions in infection in adults over 17 years of age. Even for lower vaccine coverage of 55%, we estimate reductions of 84% in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age. While open questions remain about the drivers of observed lower efficacy in low-income settings, our model suggests RV3-BB could be effective at reducing infection and preventing disease in young infants at the population level. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:40:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-929d3ce2bf36401d882afa4293151026 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2164-5515 2164-554X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:40:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
| spelling | doaj.art-929d3ce2bf36401d882afa42931510262023-09-26T13:19:10ZengTaylor & Francis GroupHuman Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics2164-55152164-554X2022-11-0118610.1080/21645515.2022.21390972139097Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant scheduleNicholas Geard0Richard Bradhurst1Nefel Tellioglu2Vicka Oktaria3Jodie McVernon4Amanda Handley5Julie E. Bines6The University of MelbourneThe University of MelbourneThe University of MelbourneUniversitas Gadjah MadaThe Royal Melbourne Hospital and The University of MelbourneMurdoch Children’s Research InstituteMurdoch Children’s Research InstituteRotavirus infection is a common cause of severe diarrheal disease and a major cause of deaths and hospitalizations among young children. Incidence of rotavirus has declined globally with increasing vaccine coverage. However, it remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries where vaccine access is limited and efficacy is lower. The oral human neonatal vaccine RV3-BB can be safely administered earlier than other vaccines, and recent trials in Indonesia have demonstrated high efficacy. In this study, we use a stochastic individual-based model of rotavirus transmission and disease to estimate the anticipated population-level impact of RV3-BB following delivery according to either an infant (2, 4, 6 months) and neonatal (0, 2, 4 months) schedule. Using our model, which incorporated an age- and household-structured population and estimates of vaccine efficacy derived from trial data, we found both delivery schedules to be effective at reducing infection and disease. We estimated 95–96% reductions in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age when vaccine coverage is 85%. We also estimate high levels of indirect protection from vaccination, including 78% reductions in infection in adults over 17 years of age. Even for lower vaccine coverage of 55%, we estimate reductions of 84% in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age. While open questions remain about the drivers of observed lower efficacy in low-income settings, our model suggests RV3-BB could be effective at reducing infection and preventing disease in young infants at the population level.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2022.2139097rotavirusrv3-bb vaccineneonatal scheduleindonesiaindividual-based model |
| spellingShingle | Nicholas Geard Richard Bradhurst Nefel Tellioglu Vicka Oktaria Jodie McVernon Amanda Handley Julie E. Bines Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics rotavirus rv3-bb vaccine neonatal schedule indonesia individual-based model |
| title | Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule |
| title_full | Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule |
| title_fullStr | Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule |
| title_short | Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule |
| title_sort | model based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of rv3 bb vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule |
| topic | rotavirus rv3-bb vaccine neonatal schedule indonesia individual-based model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2022.2139097 |
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