Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan.
This study develops a novel simulation-based procedure for the estimation of the likelihood that seismic intensity (in terms of spectral acceleration) and tsunami inundation (in terms of wave height), at a particular location, will exceed given hazard levels. The procedure accounts for a common phys...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2016-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Built Environment |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fbuil.2016.00025/full |
| _version_ | 1818694655165857792 |
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| author | Raffaele De Risi Katsuichiro Goda |
| author_facet | Raffaele De Risi Katsuichiro Goda |
| author_sort | Raffaele De Risi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study develops a novel simulation-based procedure for the estimation of the likelihood that seismic intensity (in terms of spectral acceleration) and tsunami inundation (in terms of wave height), at a particular location, will exceed given hazard levels. The procedure accounts for a common physical rupture process for shaking and tsunami. Numerous realizations of stochastic slip distributions of earthquakes having different magnitudes are generated using scaling relationships of source parameters for subduction zones and then using a stochastic synthesis method of earthquake slip distribution. Probabilistic characterization of earthquake and tsunami intensity parameters is carried out by evaluating spatially correlated strong motion intensity through the adoption of ground motion prediction equations as a function of magnitude and shortest distance from the rupture plane and by solving nonlinear shallow water equations for tsunami wave propagation and inundation. The minimum number of simulations required to obtain stable estimates of seismic and tsunami intensity measures is investigated through a statistical bootstrap analysis. The main output of the proposed procedure is the earthquake-tsunami hazard curves representing, for each mean annual rate of occurrence, the corresponding seismic and inundation tsunami intensity measures. This simulation-based procedure facilitates the earthquake-tsunami hazard deaggregation with respect to magnitude and distance. Results are particularly useful for multi-hazard mapping purposes and the developed framework can be further extended to probabilistic earthquake-tsunami risk assessment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:33:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-92afed30f6414205b876d3085cf4c978 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-3362 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:33:01Z |
| publishDate | 2016-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Built Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-92afed30f6414205b876d3085cf4c9782022-12-21T21:46:31ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Built Environment2297-33622016-10-01210.3389/fbuil.2016.00025222571Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan.Raffaele De Risi0Katsuichiro Goda1University of BristolUniversity of BristolThis study develops a novel simulation-based procedure for the estimation of the likelihood that seismic intensity (in terms of spectral acceleration) and tsunami inundation (in terms of wave height), at a particular location, will exceed given hazard levels. The procedure accounts for a common physical rupture process for shaking and tsunami. Numerous realizations of stochastic slip distributions of earthquakes having different magnitudes are generated using scaling relationships of source parameters for subduction zones and then using a stochastic synthesis method of earthquake slip distribution. Probabilistic characterization of earthquake and tsunami intensity parameters is carried out by evaluating spatially correlated strong motion intensity through the adoption of ground motion prediction equations as a function of magnitude and shortest distance from the rupture plane and by solving nonlinear shallow water equations for tsunami wave propagation and inundation. The minimum number of simulations required to obtain stable estimates of seismic and tsunami intensity measures is investigated through a statistical bootstrap analysis. The main output of the proposed procedure is the earthquake-tsunami hazard curves representing, for each mean annual rate of occurrence, the corresponding seismic and inundation tsunami intensity measures. This simulation-based procedure facilitates the earthquake-tsunami hazard deaggregation with respect to magnitude and distance. Results are particularly useful for multi-hazard mapping purposes and the developed framework can be further extended to probabilistic earthquake-tsunami risk assessment.http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fbuil.2016.00025/fulltsunamiearthquakeProbabilistic hazard analysisStochastic rupture modelsScaling relationships of earthquake source parametersMega-thrust subduction earthquake. |
| spellingShingle | Raffaele De Risi Katsuichiro Goda Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan. Frontiers in Built Environment tsunami earthquake Probabilistic hazard analysis Stochastic rupture models Scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters Mega-thrust subduction earthquake. |
| title | Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan. |
| title_full | Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan. |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan. |
| title_short | Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan. |
| title_sort | probabilistic earthquake tsunami multi hazard analysis application to the tohoku region japan |
| topic | tsunami earthquake Probabilistic hazard analysis Stochastic rupture models Scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters Mega-thrust subduction earthquake. |
| url | http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fbuil.2016.00025/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT raffaelederisi probabilisticearthquaketsunamimultihazardanalysisapplicationtothetohokuregionjapan AT katsuichirogoda probabilisticearthquaketsunamimultihazardanalysisapplicationtothetohokuregionjapan |