Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting
In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea level rise, tidal effect, the seasonal variance of influx, and the annual variance of...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2013-10-01
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| Series: | Water Science and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674237015302520 |
| _version_ | 1818304929668792320 |
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| author | Zhong-wei Zhao Jian Zhao Chang-sheng Fu |
| author_facet | Zhong-wei Zhao Jian Zhao Chang-sheng Fu |
| author_sort | Zhong-wei Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea level rise, tidal effect, the seasonal variance of influx, and the annual variance of the pumping rate, as well as combinations of different parameters. The results show that the most important factors that might cause great differences in seawater intrusion distance are the variance of pumping rate and combinations of different parameters. The influence of sea level rise can be neglected in a short-time simulation (ten years, for instance). Retardation of seawater intrusion caused by tidal effects is obviously important in aquifers near the coastline, but the influence decreases with distance away from the coastline and depth away from the seabed. The intrusion distance can reach a dynamic equilibrium with the application of the sine function for seasonal effects of influx. As a conclusion, we suggest that uncertainty analysis should be considered in seawater intrusion forecasting, if possible. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T06:18:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-933e81eb7aa044ca856a76b40287f23b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-2370 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T06:18:30Z |
| publishDate | 2013-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-933e81eb7aa044ca856a76b40287f23b2022-12-21T23:56:54ZengElsevierWater Science and Engineering1674-23702013-10-016438039110.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2013.04.002Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecastingZhong-wei Zhao0Jian Zhao1Chang-sheng Fu2State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. ChinaJiangsu Provincial Communication Planning and Design Institute, Nanjing 210005, P. R. ChinaIn order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea level rise, tidal effect, the seasonal variance of influx, and the annual variance of the pumping rate, as well as combinations of different parameters. The results show that the most important factors that might cause great differences in seawater intrusion distance are the variance of pumping rate and combinations of different parameters. The influence of sea level rise can be neglected in a short-time simulation (ten years, for instance). Retardation of seawater intrusion caused by tidal effects is obviously important in aquifers near the coastline, but the influence decreases with distance away from the coastline and depth away from the seabed. The intrusion distance can reach a dynamic equilibrium with the application of the sine function for seasonal effects of influx. As a conclusion, we suggest that uncertainty analysis should be considered in seawater intrusion forecasting, if possible.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674237015302520seawater intrusion forecastinguncertainty analysisdeterministic modeluncertainty modelfactorial design |
| spellingShingle | Zhong-wei Zhao Jian Zhao Chang-sheng Fu Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting Water Science and Engineering seawater intrusion forecasting uncertainty analysis deterministic model uncertainty model factorial design |
| title | Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting |
| title_full | Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting |
| title_short | Uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting |
| title_sort | uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion forecasting |
| topic | seawater intrusion forecasting uncertainty analysis deterministic model uncertainty model factorial design |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674237015302520 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhongweizhao uncertaintyanalysisofseawaterintrusionforecasting AT jianzhao uncertaintyanalysisofseawaterintrusionforecasting AT changshengfu uncertaintyanalysisofseawaterintrusionforecasting |