Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China
Nature-based Solutions (NbS) can undoubtedly play a significant role in carbon neutrality strategy. Forests are a major part of the carbon budget in terrestrial ecosystems. The possible response of the carbon balance of southwestern forests to different climate change scenarios was investigated thro...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/5/1442 |
| _version_ | 1797614456834883584 |
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| author | Fucheng Lü Yunkun Song Xiaodong Yan |
| author_facet | Fucheng Lü Yunkun Song Xiaodong Yan |
| author_sort | Fucheng Lü |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Nature-based Solutions (NbS) can undoubtedly play a significant role in carbon neutrality strategy. Forests are a major part of the carbon budget in terrestrial ecosystems. The possible response of the carbon balance of southwestern forests to different climate change scenarios was investigated through a series of simulations using the forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China (FORCCHN), which clearly represents the influence of climate factors on forest carbon sequestration. Driven by downscaled global climate model (GCM) data, the FORCCHN evaluates the carbon sink potential of southwestern forest ecosystems under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that, first, gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net primary productivity (NPP) of forest ecosystems are expected to increase from 2020 to 2060. Forest ecosystems will maintain a carbon sink, but net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will peak and begin to decline in the 2030s. Second, not only is the NEP in the SSP1-2.6 scenario higher than in the other climate change scenarios for 2025–2035 and 2043–2058, but the coefficient of variation of the NEP is also narrower than in the other scenarios. Third, in terms of spatial distribution, the carbon sequestration potential of northwest and central Yunnan is significantly higher than that of other regions, with a slight upward trend in NEP in the future. Finally, GPP and ER are significantly positively correlated with temperature and insignificantly correlated with precipitation, and the increasing temperature will have a negative and unstable impact on forest carbon sinks. This study provides a scientific reference for implementing forest management strategies and achieving sustainable development. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T07:11:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9340d43257ba40a29bd848220d6e416d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T07:11:40Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-9340d43257ba40a29bd848220d6e416d2023-11-17T08:33:10ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922023-03-01155144210.3390/rs15051442Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest ChinaFucheng Lü0Yunkun Song1Xiaodong Yan2State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaNature-based Solutions (NbS) can undoubtedly play a significant role in carbon neutrality strategy. Forests are a major part of the carbon budget in terrestrial ecosystems. The possible response of the carbon balance of southwestern forests to different climate change scenarios was investigated through a series of simulations using the forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China (FORCCHN), which clearly represents the influence of climate factors on forest carbon sequestration. Driven by downscaled global climate model (GCM) data, the FORCCHN evaluates the carbon sink potential of southwestern forest ecosystems under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that, first, gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net primary productivity (NPP) of forest ecosystems are expected to increase from 2020 to 2060. Forest ecosystems will maintain a carbon sink, but net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will peak and begin to decline in the 2030s. Second, not only is the NEP in the SSP1-2.6 scenario higher than in the other climate change scenarios for 2025–2035 and 2043–2058, but the coefficient of variation of the NEP is also narrower than in the other scenarios. Third, in terms of spatial distribution, the carbon sequestration potential of northwest and central Yunnan is significantly higher than that of other regions, with a slight upward trend in NEP in the future. Finally, GPP and ER are significantly positively correlated with temperature and insignificantly correlated with precipitation, and the increasing temperature will have a negative and unstable impact on forest carbon sinks. This study provides a scientific reference for implementing forest management strategies and achieving sustainable development.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/5/1442forest carbon cyclenet ecosystem productivityforest ecosystemsindividual tree-based model FORCCHNglobal climate model |
| spellingShingle | Fucheng Lü Yunkun Song Xiaodong Yan Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China Remote Sensing forest carbon cycle net ecosystem productivity forest ecosystems individual tree-based model FORCCHN global climate model |
| title | Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China |
| title_full | Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China |
| title_short | Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China |
| title_sort | evaluating carbon sink potential of forest ecosystems under different climate change scenarios in yunnan southwest china |
| topic | forest carbon cycle net ecosystem productivity forest ecosystems individual tree-based model FORCCHN global climate model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/15/5/1442 |
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