Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, Bhutan
The frequency of glacier lake outbursts floods (GLOFs) is likely to increase with the ongoing glacier retreat, which produces new glacial lakes and enlarges existing ones. Here, we simulate the outburst of a potentially dangerous glacial lake in Bhutan by applying hydrodynamic modelling. Although th...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/20/9463 |
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| author | Wilfried Hagg Stefan Ram Alexander Klaus Simon Aschauer Sinan Babernits Dennis Brand Peter Guggemoos Theodor Pappas |
| author_facet | Wilfried Hagg Stefan Ram Alexander Klaus Simon Aschauer Sinan Babernits Dennis Brand Peter Guggemoos Theodor Pappas |
| author_sort | Wilfried Hagg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The frequency of glacier lake outbursts floods (GLOFs) is likely to increase with the ongoing glacier retreat, which produces new glacial lakes and enlarges existing ones. Here, we simulate the outburst of a potentially dangerous glacial lake in Bhutan by applying hydrodynamic modelling. Although the lake volume is known, several parameters connected to the dam breach and the routing of the flood are rough estimates or assumptions, which introduce uncertainties in the results. For this reason, we create an ensemble of nine outburst scenarios. The simulation of magnitude and timing of possible inundation depths is an important asset to prepare emergency action plans. For our case study in the Mo Chu River Basin, the results show that, even under the worst case scenario, little damage to residential buildings can be expected. However, such an outburst flood would probably destroy infrastructure and farmland and might even affect the operation of a hydroelectric powerplant more than 120 km downstream the lake. Our simulation efforts revealed that, by using a 30-m elevation model instead of a 5-m raster, flood magnitude and inundation areas are overestimated significantly, which highly suggests the use of high-resolution terrain data. These results may be a valuable input for risk mitigation efforts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:45:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9347329e53f146e1b973328050c5a268 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:45:30Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-9347329e53f146e1b973328050c5a2682023-11-22T17:19:01ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172021-10-011120946310.3390/app11209463Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, BhutanWilfried Hagg0Stefan Ram1Alexander Klaus2Simon Aschauer3Sinan Babernits4Dennis Brand5Peter Guggemoos6Theodor Pappas7Department of Geoinformatics, Munich University of Applied Sciences HM, 80333 Munich, GermanyGAF AG, Arnulfstr. 199, 80634 Munich, GermanyDepartment of Geoinformatics, Munich University of Applied Sciences HM, 80333 Munich, GermanyDepartment of Geoinformatics, Munich University of Applied Sciences HM, 80333 Munich, GermanyDepartment of Geoinformatics, Munich University of Applied Sciences HM, 80333 Munich, GermanyDepartment of Geoinformatics, Munich University of Applied Sciences HM, 80333 Munich, GermanyDepartment of Geoinformatics, Munich University of Applied Sciences HM, 80333 Munich, GermanyDepartment of Geoinformatics, Munich University of Applied Sciences HM, 80333 Munich, GermanyThe frequency of glacier lake outbursts floods (GLOFs) is likely to increase with the ongoing glacier retreat, which produces new glacial lakes and enlarges existing ones. Here, we simulate the outburst of a potentially dangerous glacial lake in Bhutan by applying hydrodynamic modelling. Although the lake volume is known, several parameters connected to the dam breach and the routing of the flood are rough estimates or assumptions, which introduce uncertainties in the results. For this reason, we create an ensemble of nine outburst scenarios. The simulation of magnitude and timing of possible inundation depths is an important asset to prepare emergency action plans. For our case study in the Mo Chu River Basin, the results show that, even under the worst case scenario, little damage to residential buildings can be expected. However, such an outburst flood would probably destroy infrastructure and farmland and might even affect the operation of a hydroelectric powerplant more than 120 km downstream the lake. Our simulation efforts revealed that, by using a 30-m elevation model instead of a 5-m raster, flood magnitude and inundation areas are overestimated significantly, which highly suggests the use of high-resolution terrain data. These results may be a valuable input for risk mitigation efforts.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/20/9463glacier lake outburst floodGLOFjökulhlauphydrodynamic modellingHEC-RASrisk assessment |
| spellingShingle | Wilfried Hagg Stefan Ram Alexander Klaus Simon Aschauer Sinan Babernits Dennis Brand Peter Guggemoos Theodor Pappas Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, Bhutan Applied Sciences glacier lake outburst flood GLOF jökulhlaup hydrodynamic modelling HEC-RAS risk assessment |
| title | Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, Bhutan |
| title_full | Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, Bhutan |
| title_fullStr | Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, Bhutan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, Bhutan |
| title_short | Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in the Mo Chu River Basin, Bhutan |
| title_sort | hazard assessment for a glacier lake outburst flood in the mo chu river basin bhutan |
| topic | glacier lake outburst flood GLOF jökulhlaup hydrodynamic modelling HEC-RAS risk assessment |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/20/9463 |
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