Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events
Abstract Several aspects of regional climate including near-surface temperature and precipitation are predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. Despite indications that some climate states may provide higher predictability than others, previous studies analysing decadal predictions typicall...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9 |
| _version_ | 1827603276993921024 |
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| author | Yiling Liu Markus. G. Donat Matthew. H. England Lisa. V. Alexander Annette L. Hirsch Carlos Delgado-Torres |
| author_facet | Yiling Liu Markus. G. Donat Matthew. H. England Lisa. V. Alexander Annette L. Hirsch Carlos Delgado-Torres |
| author_sort | Yiling Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Several aspects of regional climate including near-surface temperature and precipitation are predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. Despite indications that some climate states may provide higher predictability than others, previous studies analysing decadal predictions typically sample a variety of initial conditions. Here we assess multi-year predictability conditional on the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the time of prediction initialisation. We find that predictions starting with El Niño or La Niña conditions exhibit higher skill in predicting near-surface air temperature and precipitation multiple years in advance, compared to predictions initialised from neutral ENSO conditions. This holds true in idealised prediction experiments with the Community Climate System Model Version 4 and to a lesser extent also real-world predictions using the Community Earth System Model and a multi-model ensemble of hindcasts contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project. This enhanced predictability following ENSO events is related to phase transitions as part of the ENSO cycle, and related global teleconnections. Our results indicate that certain initial states provide increased predictability, revealing windows of opportunity for more skillful multi-year predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:36:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9358984f3e214c93ac7941d6533f3d5e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:36:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-9358984f3e214c93ac7941d6533f3d5e2023-12-03T12:28:20ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-10-011411910.1038/s41467-023-42113-9Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña eventsYiling Liu0Markus. G. Donat1Matthew. H. England2Lisa. V. Alexander3Annette L. Hirsch4Carlos Delgado-Torres5Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSWBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)Centre for Marine Science and Innovation and Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, UNSWClimate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSWClimate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSWBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)Abstract Several aspects of regional climate including near-surface temperature and precipitation are predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. Despite indications that some climate states may provide higher predictability than others, previous studies analysing decadal predictions typically sample a variety of initial conditions. Here we assess multi-year predictability conditional on the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the time of prediction initialisation. We find that predictions starting with El Niño or La Niña conditions exhibit higher skill in predicting near-surface air temperature and precipitation multiple years in advance, compared to predictions initialised from neutral ENSO conditions. This holds true in idealised prediction experiments with the Community Climate System Model Version 4 and to a lesser extent also real-world predictions using the Community Earth System Model and a multi-model ensemble of hindcasts contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project. This enhanced predictability following ENSO events is related to phase transitions as part of the ENSO cycle, and related global teleconnections. Our results indicate that certain initial states provide increased predictability, revealing windows of opportunity for more skillful multi-year predictions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9 |
| spellingShingle | Yiling Liu Markus. G. Donat Matthew. H. England Lisa. V. Alexander Annette L. Hirsch Carlos Delgado-Torres Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events Nature Communications |
| title | Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events |
| title_full | Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events |
| title_fullStr | Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events |
| title_short | Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events |
| title_sort | enhanced multi year predictability after el nino and la nina events |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9 |
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