Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty
The main characteristic of the water resources system (WRS) is its great complexity and uncertainty, which makes it highly desirable to carry out a risk analysis of the WRS. The natural environmental, social economic conditions as well as limitations of human cognitive ability are possible sources o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Higher Education Press
2015-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://academic.hep.com.cn/fase/fileup/2095-7505/PDF/2095-7505-2015-3-205.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818535002186448896 |
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| author | Zeying GUI,Chenglong ZHANG,Mo Li,Ping GUO |
| author_facet | Zeying GUI,Chenglong ZHANG,Mo Li,Ping GUO |
| author_sort | Zeying GUI,Chenglong ZHANG,Mo Li,Ping GUO |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The main characteristic of the water resources system (WRS) is its great complexity and uncertainty, which makes it highly desirable to carry out a risk analysis of the WRS. The natural environmental, social economic conditions as well as limitations of human cognitive ability are possible sources of the uncertainties that need to be taken into account in the risk analysis process. In this paper the inherent stochastic uncertainty and cognitive subjective uncertainty of the WRS are discussed first, from both objective and subjective perspectives. Then the quantitative characterization methods of risk analysis are introduced, including three criteria (reliability, resiliency and vulnerability) and five basic optimization models (the expected risk value model, conditional value at risk model, chance-constrained risk model, minimizing probability of risk events model, and the multi-objective optimization model). Finally, this paper focuses on the various methods of risk analysis under uncertainty, which are summarized as random, fuzzy and mixed methods. A more comprehensive risk analysis methodology for the WRS is proposed based on the comparison of the advantages, disadvantages and applicable conditions of these three methods. This paper provides a decision support of risk analysis for researchers, policy makers and stakeholders of the WRS. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T18:19:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-938f5f070c304f57abbfcc3f0b8a47ea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2095-7505 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T18:19:00Z |
| publishDate | 2015-09-01 |
| publisher | Higher Education Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-938f5f070c304f57abbfcc3f0b8a47ea2022-12-22T00:55:19ZengHigher Education PressFrontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering2095-75052015-09-012320521510.15302/J-FASE-2015073Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertaintyZeying GUI,Chenglong ZHANG,Mo Li,Ping GUO0Centre for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaThe main characteristic of the water resources system (WRS) is its great complexity and uncertainty, which makes it highly desirable to carry out a risk analysis of the WRS. The natural environmental, social economic conditions as well as limitations of human cognitive ability are possible sources of the uncertainties that need to be taken into account in the risk analysis process. In this paper the inherent stochastic uncertainty and cognitive subjective uncertainty of the WRS are discussed first, from both objective and subjective perspectives. Then the quantitative characterization methods of risk analysis are introduced, including three criteria (reliability, resiliency and vulnerability) and five basic optimization models (the expected risk value model, conditional value at risk model, chance-constrained risk model, minimizing probability of risk events model, and the multi-objective optimization model). Finally, this paper focuses on the various methods of risk analysis under uncertainty, which are summarized as random, fuzzy and mixed methods. A more comprehensive risk analysis methodology for the WRS is proposed based on the comparison of the advantages, disadvantages and applicable conditions of these three methods. This paper provides a decision support of risk analysis for researchers, policy makers and stakeholders of the WRS.http://academic.hep.com.cn/fase/fileup/2095-7505/PDF/2095-7505-2015-3-205.pdfwater resources system|evaluation criterion|optimization model|risk analysis method|uncertainty |
| spellingShingle | Zeying GUI,Chenglong ZHANG,Mo Li,Ping GUO Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering water resources system|evaluation criterion|optimization model|risk analysis method|uncertainty |
| title | Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty |
| title_full | Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty |
| title_short | Risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty |
| title_sort | risk analysis methods of the water resources system under uncertainty |
| topic | water resources system|evaluation criterion|optimization model|risk analysis method|uncertainty |
| url | http://academic.hep.com.cn/fase/fileup/2095-7505/PDF/2095-7505-2015-3-205.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zeyingguichenglongzhangmolipingguo riskanalysismethodsofthewaterresourcessystemunderuncertainty |