Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic
In the present paper, we model the cumulative number of persons, reported to be infected with COVID-19 virus, by a sum of several logistic functions (the so-called multilogistic function). We introduce logistic wavelets and describe their properties in terms of Eulerian numbers. Moreover, we impleme...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/17/8147 |
| _version_ | 1797521668674945024 |
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| author | Grzegorz Rza̧dkowski Giuseppe Figlia |
| author_facet | Grzegorz Rza̧dkowski Giuseppe Figlia |
| author_sort | Grzegorz Rza̧dkowski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the present paper, we model the cumulative number of persons, reported to be infected with COVID-19 virus, by a sum of several logistic functions (the so-called multilogistic function). We introduce logistic wavelets and describe their properties in terms of Eulerian numbers. Moreover, we implement the logistic wavelets into Matlab’s Wavelet Toolbox and then we use the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to estimate the parameters of the approximating multilogistic function. Using the examples of several countries, we show that this method is effective as a method of fitting a curve to existing data. However, it also has a predictive value, and, in particular, allows for an early assessment of the size of the emerging new wave of the epidemic, thus it can be used as an early warning method. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T08:15:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9390206cf906417e90071ad59afe315d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T08:15:48Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-9390206cf906417e90071ad59afe315d2023-11-22T10:22:18ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172021-09-011117814710.3390/app11178147Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 PandemicGrzegorz Rza̧dkowski0Giuseppe Figlia1Department of Finance and Risk Management, Warsaw University of Technology, Narbutta 85, 02-524 Warsaw, PolandIndependent Researcher, Certified Project Manager at P&P SPA Italy, C. Vercelli 168, 10155 Turin, ItalyIn the present paper, we model the cumulative number of persons, reported to be infected with COVID-19 virus, by a sum of several logistic functions (the so-called multilogistic function). We introduce logistic wavelets and describe their properties in terms of Eulerian numbers. Moreover, we implement the logistic wavelets into Matlab’s Wavelet Toolbox and then we use the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to estimate the parameters of the approximating multilogistic function. Using the examples of several countries, we show that this method is effective as a method of fitting a curve to existing data. However, it also has a predictive value, and, in particular, allows for an early assessment of the size of the emerging new wave of the epidemic, thus it can be used as an early warning method.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/17/8147logistic waveletlogistic equationlogistic functionCOVID-19 infectionEulerian numberRiccati’s differential equation |
| spellingShingle | Grzegorz Rza̧dkowski Giuseppe Figlia Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Applied Sciences logistic wavelet logistic equation logistic function COVID-19 infection Eulerian number Riccati’s differential equation |
| title | Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_full | Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_fullStr | Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_short | Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic |
| title_sort | logistic wavelets and their application to model the spread of covid 19 pandemic |
| topic | logistic wavelet logistic equation logistic function COVID-19 infection Eulerian number Riccati’s differential equation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/17/8147 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT grzegorzrzadkowski logisticwaveletsandtheirapplicationtomodelthespreadofcovid19pandemic AT giuseppefiglia logisticwaveletsandtheirapplicationtomodelthespreadofcovid19pandemic |