Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in context
Summary: Background: Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against re...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-08-01
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| Series: | EClinicalMedicine |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537023002791 |
| _version_ | 1797738943674843136 |
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| author | Suelen H. Qassim Hiam Chemaitelly Houssein H. Ayoub Peter Coyle Patrick Tang Hadi M. Yassine Asmaa A. Al Thani Hebah A. Al-Khatib Mohammad R. Hasan Zaina Al-Kanaani Einas Al-Kuwari Andrew Jeremijenko Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal Ali Nizar Latif Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik Hanan F. Abdul-Rahim Gheyath K. Nasrallah Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari Adeel A. Butt Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi Mohamed H. Al-Thani Abdullatif Al-Khal Roberto Bertollini Laith J. Abu-Raddad |
| author_facet | Suelen H. Qassim Hiam Chemaitelly Houssein H. Ayoub Peter Coyle Patrick Tang Hadi M. Yassine Asmaa A. Al Thani Hebah A. Al-Khatib Mohammad R. Hasan Zaina Al-Kanaani Einas Al-Kuwari Andrew Jeremijenko Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal Ali Nizar Latif Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik Hanan F. Abdul-Rahim Gheyath K. Nasrallah Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari Adeel A. Butt Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi Mohamed H. Al-Thani Abdullatif Al-Khal Roberto Bertollini Laith J. Abu-Raddad |
| author_sort | Suelen H. Qassim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population. Methods: We estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case–control studies. Findings: Previous-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8–91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3–53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0–85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6–91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7–38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration. Interpretation: High population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence. Funding: The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:51:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-93b93fcf366c45b9a38660e353674e88 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2589-5370 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:51:08Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EClinicalMedicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-93b93fcf366c45b9a38660e353674e882023-08-23T04:33:58ZengElsevierEClinicalMedicine2589-53702023-08-0162102102Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in contextSuelen H. Qassim0Hiam Chemaitelly1Houssein H. Ayoub2Peter Coyle3Patrick Tang4Hadi M. Yassine5Asmaa A. Al Thani6Hebah A. Al-Khatib7Mohammad R. Hasan8Zaina Al-Kanaani9Einas Al-Kuwari10Andrew Jeremijenko11Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal12Ali Nizar Latif13Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik14Hanan F. Abdul-Rahim15Gheyath K. Nasrallah16Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari17Adeel A. Butt18Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi19Mohamed H. Al-Thani20Abdullatif Al-Khal21Roberto Bertollini22Laith J. Abu-Raddad23Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA; Corresponding author. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USAMathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar; Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United KingdomDepartment of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, QatarBiomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, QatarBiomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, QatarBiomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, QatarDepartment of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, QatarDepartment of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, QatarBiomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, QatarPrimary Health Care Corporation, Doha, QatarDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA; Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar; Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USAMinistry of Public Health, Doha, QatarMinistry of Public Health, Doha, QatarHamad Medical Corporation, Doha, QatarMinistry of Public Health, Doha, QatarInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar; World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation – Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA; Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar; College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar; Corresponding author. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.Summary: Background: Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population. Methods: We estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case–control studies. Findings: Previous-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8–91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3–53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0–85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6–91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7–38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration. Interpretation: High population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence. Funding: The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537023002791COVID-19ImmunityNatural infectionVaccineTest-negativeEpidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Suelen H. Qassim Hiam Chemaitelly Houssein H. Ayoub Peter Coyle Patrick Tang Hadi M. Yassine Asmaa A. Al Thani Hebah A. Al-Khatib Mohammad R. Hasan Zaina Al-Kanaani Einas Al-Kuwari Andrew Jeremijenko Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal Ali Nizar Latif Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik Hanan F. Abdul-Rahim Gheyath K. Nasrallah Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari Adeel A. Butt Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi Mohamed H. Al-Thani Abdullatif Al-Khal Roberto Bertollini Laith J. Abu-Raddad Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in context EClinicalMedicine COVID-19 Immunity Natural infection Vaccine Test-negative Epidemiology |
| title | Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in context |
| title_full | Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in context |
| title_short | Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational studyResearch in context |
| title_sort | population immunity of natural infection primary series vaccination and booster vaccination in qatar during the covid 19 pandemic an observational studyresearch in context |
| topic | COVID-19 Immunity Natural infection Vaccine Test-negative Epidemiology |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537023002791 |
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