| Summary: | Global warming affects food security and ecological security, and it threatens economic stability and sustainable agricultural development. The transformation and development of agriculture have significant implications for the achievement of the “dual-carbon” goals and the promotion of sustainable agricultural development. Based on panel data on organic dry farming in China from 2005 to 2020, this study aimed to comprehensively assess the transformation performance of organic dry farming (TRODF) in 15 provinces. It explored the impact of the transformation of organic dry farming on carbon emissions by utilizing a spatial Markov chain and spatial measurement models. Our findings are as follows: (1) The performance of the organic dryland agriculture transformation has gradually improved and is accompanied by a corresponding trend of fluctuating regional disparities, which are on the rise. Moreover, the disparities between the five major regions mainly stem from intra-regional differences. (2) TRODF agriculture presents the possibility of state transfer during different periods, featuring four convergent zones: a lagging zone, a starting zone, a crossing zone, and an advanced zone. The spatial Markov chain indicates that state transitions typically occur between adjacent levels, with fewer instances of “jump”-type transitions. Moreover, there is a clear trend of differentiation in the state transitions between non-adjacent areas. (3) The organic dry farming transformation exhibits a significant carbon reduction effect, which is characterized by heterogeneity across different stages of agricultural development, provinces, and time periods. This study emphasizes that economic and industrial transformation, along with the transformation of the ecological environment, represents a crucial direction for conserving resources and achieving a further reduction in carbon emissions.
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