Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA
This study evaluates statistical downscaling techniques using different metrics and compares climate change signals and extreme precipitation and temperature changes under future climate change scenarios in the Bosque watershed, North-Central Texas. The study utilizes observed gridded Daymet data to...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000907 |
| _version_ | 1797292978129076224 |
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| author | Gebrekidan Worku Tefera Ram L. Ray Adrienne M. Wootten |
| author_facet | Gebrekidan Worku Tefera Ram L. Ray Adrienne M. Wootten |
| author_sort | Gebrekidan Worku Tefera |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study evaluates statistical downscaling techniques using different metrics and compares climate change signals and extreme precipitation and temperature changes under future climate change scenarios in the Bosque watershed, North-Central Texas. The study utilizes observed gridded Daymet data to assess the effectiveness of statistical downscaling techniques. It involves comparing the mean, the 90th percentile, 10th percentile, wet day frequency, and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of climate model simulations before and after downscaling and the Daymet data during the historical period (1981–2005). Furthermore, the study analyzes changes in climate change signals, extreme precipitation, and temperature values under both near-future (2031–2060) and far-future (2070–2099) climate scenarios. The Ratio Delta method (DeltaSD) and Equi-Distant Quantile Mapping (EDQM) statistical downscaling techniques adjust the mean annual, the wet days frequency, the 90th and 10th percentiles, and the CDF of Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations of historical precipitation and temperature. The downscaling techniques influenced the climate change signal and changes in extreme values in the future climate. When examining future climate projections produced using the DeltaSD method, we observe a more pronounced reduction in precipitation, while simulations generated through EDQM exhibit a higher frequency of heavy precipitation events (R10mm, R20mm) and consecutive dry days (CDD). It's worth noting that the uncertainties associated with the statistical downscaling techniques are relatively small and not statistically significant (≤0.05). In contrast, substantial and significant uncertainties arise from the choice of emission scenarios and the selection of driving GCMs. Across most climate change scenarios, there is a consistent trend towards increased temperatures and extreme temperature indices. The trend of extreme temperature indices shows variation following the choice of emission scenarios where a significant change in temperature extremes was detected under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T20:05:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-93f2ba384a904ee784d71c17557e09de |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T20:05:14Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-93f2ba384a904ee784d71c17557e09de2024-02-28T05:13:17ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472024-03-0143100637Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USAGebrekidan Worku Tefera0Ram L. Ray1Adrienne M. Wootten2Cooperative Agricultural Research Center, College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX 77446, USA; Corresponding author.Cooperative Agricultural Research Center, College of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX 77446, USASouth Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USAThis study evaluates statistical downscaling techniques using different metrics and compares climate change signals and extreme precipitation and temperature changes under future climate change scenarios in the Bosque watershed, North-Central Texas. The study utilizes observed gridded Daymet data to assess the effectiveness of statistical downscaling techniques. It involves comparing the mean, the 90th percentile, 10th percentile, wet day frequency, and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of climate model simulations before and after downscaling and the Daymet data during the historical period (1981–2005). Furthermore, the study analyzes changes in climate change signals, extreme precipitation, and temperature values under both near-future (2031–2060) and far-future (2070–2099) climate scenarios. The Ratio Delta method (DeltaSD) and Equi-Distant Quantile Mapping (EDQM) statistical downscaling techniques adjust the mean annual, the wet days frequency, the 90th and 10th percentiles, and the CDF of Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations of historical precipitation and temperature. The downscaling techniques influenced the climate change signal and changes in extreme values in the future climate. When examining future climate projections produced using the DeltaSD method, we observe a more pronounced reduction in precipitation, while simulations generated through EDQM exhibit a higher frequency of heavy precipitation events (R10mm, R20mm) and consecutive dry days (CDD). It's worth noting that the uncertainties associated with the statistical downscaling techniques are relatively small and not statistically significant (≤0.05). In contrast, substantial and significant uncertainties arise from the choice of emission scenarios and the selection of driving GCMs. Across most climate change scenarios, there is a consistent trend towards increased temperatures and extreme temperature indices. The trend of extreme temperature indices shows variation following the choice of emission scenarios where a significant change in temperature extremes was detected under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000907Statistical downscalingClimate change signalClimate extremesTexasUSA |
| spellingShingle | Gebrekidan Worku Tefera Ram L. Ray Adrienne M. Wootten Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA Weather and Climate Extremes Statistical downscaling Climate change signal Climate extremes Texas USA |
| title | Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA |
| title_full | Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA |
| title_short | Evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central Texas, USA |
| title_sort | evaluation of statistical downscaling techniques and projection of climate extremes in central texas usa |
| topic | Statistical downscaling Climate change signal Climate extremes Texas USA |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000907 |
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