Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River
Abstract Pakistan experiences extreme flood events almost every year during the monsoon season. Recently, flood events have become more disastrous as their frequency and magnitude have increased due to climate change. This situation is further worsened due to the limited capacity of existing water r...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-03-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12857 |
| _version_ | 1811164528943038464 |
|---|---|
| author | Muhammad Rizwan Xin Li Yingying Chen Lubna Anjum Shanawar Hamid Muhammad Yamin Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary Muhammad Adnan Shahid Qaisar Mehmood |
| author_facet | Muhammad Rizwan Xin Li Yingying Chen Lubna Anjum Shanawar Hamid Muhammad Yamin Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary Muhammad Adnan Shahid Qaisar Mehmood |
| author_sort | Muhammad Rizwan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Pakistan experiences extreme flood events almost every year during the monsoon season. Recently, flood events have become more disastrous as their frequency and magnitude have increased due to climate change. This situation is further worsened due to the limited capacity of existing water reservoirs and their ability to absorb and mitigate peak floods. Thus, the simulation of stream flows using projected data from climate models is essential to assess flood events and proper water resource management in the country. This study investigates the future floods (in near future and far future periods) using the integrated flood analysis system (IFAS) model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Downscaled and bias corrected climatic data of six general circulation models and their ensemble were used in this study. The IFAS model simulated the stream flow efficiently (R2 = 0.86–0.93 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.72–0.92) in the Jhelum River basin (JRB), Kabul River basin (KRB), and upper Indus River basin (UIRB) during the calibration and validation periods. The simulation results of the model showed significant impact of projected climate change on stream flows that will cause the mean monthly stream flow in the JRB to be lower, while that of the KRB and UIRB to be higher than that of the historical period. The highest flow months are expected to shift from May–June (Jhelum basin) and June–July (Kabul basin) to April–May with no changes in the UIRB. Higher frequencies of low to medium floods are projected in the KRB and UIRB, while the JRB expects fewer flood events. Based on the results from the IFAS model, it is concluded that stream flow in the study area will increase with several flood events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:22:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-940eb6074ca94e13a74a0564fd935152 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1753-318X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T15:22:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-940eb6074ca94e13a74a0564fd9351522023-02-14T12:22:52ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2023-03-01161n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.12857Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus RiverMuhammad Rizwan0Xin Li1Yingying Chen2Lubna Anjum3Shanawar Hamid4Muhammad Yamin5Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary6Muhammad Adnan Shahid7Qaisar Mehmood8National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaNational Tibetan Plateau Data Center, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaNational Tibetan Plateau Data Center, State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaFaculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology University of Agriculture Faisalabad PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering Swedish College of Engineering and Technology Rahim Yar Khan PakistanFaculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology University of Agriculture Faisalabad PakistanWater Management Research Centre University of Agriculture Faisalabad Faisalabad PakistanAgricultural Remote Sensing Lab National Center of GIS and Space Applications, University of Agriculture Faisalabad Faisalabad PakistanDepartment of Agriculture (Field Wing) Government of Punjab Lahore PakistanAbstract Pakistan experiences extreme flood events almost every year during the monsoon season. Recently, flood events have become more disastrous as their frequency and magnitude have increased due to climate change. This situation is further worsened due to the limited capacity of existing water reservoirs and their ability to absorb and mitigate peak floods. Thus, the simulation of stream flows using projected data from climate models is essential to assess flood events and proper water resource management in the country. This study investigates the future floods (in near future and far future periods) using the integrated flood analysis system (IFAS) model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Downscaled and bias corrected climatic data of six general circulation models and their ensemble were used in this study. The IFAS model simulated the stream flow efficiently (R2 = 0.86–0.93 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.72–0.92) in the Jhelum River basin (JRB), Kabul River basin (KRB), and upper Indus River basin (UIRB) during the calibration and validation periods. The simulation results of the model showed significant impact of projected climate change on stream flows that will cause the mean monthly stream flow in the JRB to be lower, while that of the KRB and UIRB to be higher than that of the historical period. The highest flow months are expected to shift from May–June (Jhelum basin) and June–July (Kabul basin) to April–May with no changes in the UIRB. Higher frequencies of low to medium floods are projected in the KRB and UIRB, while the JRB expects fewer flood events. Based on the results from the IFAS model, it is concluded that stream flow in the study area will increase with several flood events.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12857climate changeflood simulationIFAS modelprecipitationRCP2.6RCP4.5 |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Rizwan Xin Li Yingying Chen Lubna Anjum Shanawar Hamid Muhammad Yamin Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary Muhammad Adnan Shahid Qaisar Mehmood Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River Journal of Flood Risk Management climate change flood simulation IFAS model precipitation RCP2.6 RCP4.5 |
| title | Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River |
| title_full | Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River |
| title_fullStr | Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River |
| title_short | Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River |
| title_sort | simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the indus river |
| topic | climate change flood simulation IFAS model precipitation RCP2.6 RCP4.5 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12857 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT muhammadrizwan simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT xinli simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT yingyingchen simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT lubnaanjum simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT shanawarhamid simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT muhammadyamin simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT junaidnawazchauhdary simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT muhammadadnanshahid simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver AT qaisarmehmood simulatingfuturefloodrisksunderclimatechangeinthesourceregionoftheindusriver |