Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results
In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides....
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2007-12-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/6085/2007/acp-7-6085-2007.pdf |
| Summary: | In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. <br><br> We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). <br><br> This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner. |
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| ISSN: | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |