Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results
In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides....
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2007-12-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/6085/2007/acp-7-6085-2007.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818753793218576384 |
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| author | A. Riccio G. Giunta S. Galmarini |
| author_facet | A. Riccio G. Giunta S. Galmarini |
| author_sort | A. Riccio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. <br><br> We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). <br><br> This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:13:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9414c766617f4343a7d74eed3ba2e879 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T05:13:00Z |
| publishDate | 2007-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-9414c766617f4343a7d74eed3ba2e8792022-12-21T21:19:50ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242007-12-0172460856098Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble resultsA. RiccioG. GiuntaS. GalmariniIn this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. <br><br> We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). <br><br> This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/6085/2007/acp-7-6085-2007.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. Riccio G. Giunta S. Galmarini Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results |
| title_full | Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results |
| title_fullStr | Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results |
| title_short | Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results |
| title_sort | seeking for the rational basis of the median model the optimal combination of multi model ensemble results |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/6085/2007/acp-7-6085-2007.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ariccio seekingfortherationalbasisofthemedianmodeltheoptimalcombinationofmultimodelensembleresults AT ggiunta seekingfortherationalbasisofthemedianmodeltheoptimalcombinationofmultimodelensembleresults AT sgalmarini seekingfortherationalbasisofthemedianmodeltheoptimalcombinationofmultimodelensembleresults |