Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy
Interval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g., .05) ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differen...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2013-05-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500006008/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797697907674054656 |
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| author | Luke F. Rinne Michèle M. M. Mazzocco |
| author_facet | Luke F. Rinne Michèle M. M. Mazzocco |
| author_sort | Luke F. Rinne |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Interval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g., .05) ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns’ annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions). Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g., .25) more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T03:46:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-949e9bfda7b24d6aaeae5519b0a2a63c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T03:46:39Z |
| publishDate | 2013-05-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-949e9bfda7b24d6aaeae5519b0a2a63c2023-09-03T12:44:18ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752013-05-01833034410.1017/S1930297500006008Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracyLuke F. Rinne0Michèle M. M. Mazzocco1School of Education, Johns Hopkins University, 2800 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD, 21218Institute of Child Development, and Center for Early Education and Development, University of Minnesota, Schools of Education and Medicine, Johns Hopkins UniversityInterval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g., .05) ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns’ annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions). Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g., .25) more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500006008/type/journal_articleinterval estimatesprobability judgmentnumeracynumerical cognitiondecision-making |
| spellingShingle | Luke F. Rinne Michèle M. M. Mazzocco Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy Judgment and Decision Making interval estimates probability judgment numeracy numerical cognition decision-making |
| title | Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy |
| title_full | Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy |
| title_fullStr | Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy |
| title_short | Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy |
| title_sort | inferring uncertainty from interval estimates effects of alpha level and numeracy |
| topic | interval estimates probability judgment numeracy numerical cognition decision-making |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500006008/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lukefrinne inferringuncertaintyfromintervalestimateseffectsofalphalevelandnumeracy AT michelemmmazzocco inferringuncertaintyfromintervalestimateseffectsofalphalevelandnumeracy |