The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan
Many studies have shown that the weather greatly affects the tourist count. Understanding weather information, climate change, and how they influence the tourist count in different tourist seasons (peak season, second peak season, off season) can help park planners and managers to analyze the opport...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/11/1203 |
| _version_ | 1797547835609055232 |
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| author | Wan-Yu Liu Yen-Hsiang Huang Chi-Ming Hsieh |
| author_facet | Wan-Yu Liu Yen-Hsiang Huang Chi-Ming Hsieh |
| author_sort | Wan-Yu Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many studies have shown that the weather greatly affects the tourist count. Understanding weather information, climate change, and how they influence the tourist count in different tourist seasons (peak season, second peak season, off season) can help park planners and managers to analyze the opportunities and risks caused by climate change. This study aimed to predict the visitor count through information on the number of visitors and the weather day for three tourist seasons in a 12-month period. The study was conducted in the Huisun Forest Park of Taiwan based on the peak season (February, July, August, and October), the second peak season (January, April, May, November, and December), and the off-season (March, June, and September), using weather factors and virtual factors (such as whether it is a weekend or not) to establish three multivariate regression models for predicting the daily visitor count. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the visitor count and analyzed possible scenarios of climate change using representative concentration pathways (RCPs), as stated in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of this study indicated that the impacts of weather factors on the visitor count is the same for the peak season and the off season. The temperature and relative humidity have a significant impact on the visitor count, and precipitation is not significant. In the second peak season, only the temperature has a significant impact on the visitor count. The relative humidity and precipitation are not significant. The temperature is the most influential factor in all three seasons, and has the highest influence on the peak season, followed by the low season, and then the second peak season. In addition, the number of visitors in Huisun Forest Park is on the rise, according to an analysis of various climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The results of this study can be used as a reference by forest park managers and future researchers. It is noted that the results were based on the current economic and political situation. The worsening of the entire world situation could break the relationships. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:49:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-94a61005b39242e7be00b587f892d8f5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:49:55Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-94a61005b39242e7be00b587f892d8f52023-11-20T21:03:54ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072020-11-011111120310.3390/f11111203The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in TaiwanWan-Yu Liu0Yen-Hsiang Huang1Chi-Ming Hsieh2Innovation and Development Center of Sustainable Agriculture, Department of Forestry, National Chung Hsing University, 145 Xingda Rd., South Dist., Taichung City 40227, TaiwanInnovation and Development Center of Sustainable Agriculture, Department of Forestry, National Chung Hsing University, 145 Xingda Rd., South Dist., Taichung City 40227, TaiwanInternational Bachelor Program of Agribusiness, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung City 40227, TaiwanMany studies have shown that the weather greatly affects the tourist count. Understanding weather information, climate change, and how they influence the tourist count in different tourist seasons (peak season, second peak season, off season) can help park planners and managers to analyze the opportunities and risks caused by climate change. This study aimed to predict the visitor count through information on the number of visitors and the weather day for three tourist seasons in a 12-month period. The study was conducted in the Huisun Forest Park of Taiwan based on the peak season (February, July, August, and October), the second peak season (January, April, May, November, and December), and the off-season (March, June, and September), using weather factors and virtual factors (such as whether it is a weekend or not) to establish three multivariate regression models for predicting the daily visitor count. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the visitor count and analyzed possible scenarios of climate change using representative concentration pathways (RCPs), as stated in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of this study indicated that the impacts of weather factors on the visitor count is the same for the peak season and the off season. The temperature and relative humidity have a significant impact on the visitor count, and precipitation is not significant. In the second peak season, only the temperature has a significant impact on the visitor count. The relative humidity and precipitation are not significant. The temperature is the most influential factor in all three seasons, and has the highest influence on the peak season, followed by the low season, and then the second peak season. In addition, the number of visitors in Huisun Forest Park is on the rise, according to an analysis of various climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The results of this study can be used as a reference by forest park managers and future researchers. It is noted that the results were based on the current economic and political situation. The worsening of the entire world situation could break the relationships.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/11/1203weather factorsvisitationclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Wan-Yu Liu Yen-Hsiang Huang Chi-Ming Hsieh The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan Forests weather factors visitation climate change |
| title | The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan |
| title_full | The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan |
| title_fullStr | The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan |
| title_short | The Impacts of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Visits toward the National Forest Park in Taiwan |
| title_sort | impacts of different climate change scenarios on visits toward the national forest park in taiwan |
| topic | weather factors visitation climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/11/1203 |
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