Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027
Woodfuels constitute nearly 80% of Haiti’s primary energy supply. Forests are severely degraded and the nation has long been considered an archetypal case of woodfuel-driven deforestation. However, there is little empirical evidence that woodfuel demand directly contributes to deforestation, but may...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa846 |
| _version_ | 1797748369782734848 |
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| author | Adrian Ghilardi Andrew Tarter Robert Bailis |
| author_facet | Adrian Ghilardi Andrew Tarter Robert Bailis |
| author_sort | Adrian Ghilardi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Woodfuels constitute nearly 80% of Haiti’s primary energy supply. Forests are severely degraded and the nation has long been considered an archetypal case of woodfuel-driven deforestation. However, there is little empirical evidence that woodfuel demand directly contributes to deforestation, but may contribute to degradation. We use MoFuSS (Modeling Fuelwood Sustainability Scenarios), a dynamic landscape model, to assess whether current woodfuel demand is as impactful as it is often depicted by simulating changes in land cover that would result if current demand continues unabated. We also simulate several near-term interventions focused on woodfuel demand reduction to analyze the land cover impacts of different energy trajectories. We find that current demand may contribute to moderate levels of degradation, but it is not as severe as is typically portrayed. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the simulated regenerative capacity of woody biomass is insufficient to meet Haiti’s increasing demand for wood energy and, as a result, between 2017 and 2027 stocks of above-ground (woody) biomass could decline by 4% ± 1%. This is an annual loss of 302 ± 29 kton of wood and would emit 555 ± 54 kton CO _2 yr ^−1 . Aggressive interventions to reduce woodfuel demand could slow or even reverse woodfuel-driven degradation, allowing woody biomass to recover in some regions. We discuss the policy implications and propose steps to reduce uncertainty and validate the model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-94b64f2162ba422a9f3bc45ca168c2cf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:47Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-94b64f2162ba422a9f3bc45ca168c2cf2023-08-09T14:30:55ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113303500710.1088/1748-9326/aaa846Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027Adrian Ghilardi0Andrew Tarter1Robert Bailis2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4111-3760Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México—Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental (CIGA) & Laboratorio Nacional de Análisis y Síntesis Ecológica (LANASE), Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores. Antigua carretera a Pátzcuaro 8701 , Morelia, Michoacán 58190, MexicoScience and Technology Policy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science , Washington, DC, United States of AmericaStockholm Environment Institute (SEI)—US Center 11 Curtis Avenue, Somerville, MA 02144-1224, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Woodfuels constitute nearly 80% of Haiti’s primary energy supply. Forests are severely degraded and the nation has long been considered an archetypal case of woodfuel-driven deforestation. However, there is little empirical evidence that woodfuel demand directly contributes to deforestation, but may contribute to degradation. We use MoFuSS (Modeling Fuelwood Sustainability Scenarios), a dynamic landscape model, to assess whether current woodfuel demand is as impactful as it is often depicted by simulating changes in land cover that would result if current demand continues unabated. We also simulate several near-term interventions focused on woodfuel demand reduction to analyze the land cover impacts of different energy trajectories. We find that current demand may contribute to moderate levels of degradation, but it is not as severe as is typically portrayed. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the simulated regenerative capacity of woody biomass is insufficient to meet Haiti’s increasing demand for wood energy and, as a result, between 2017 and 2027 stocks of above-ground (woody) biomass could decline by 4% ± 1%. This is an annual loss of 302 ± 29 kton of wood and would emit 555 ± 54 kton CO _2 yr ^−1 . Aggressive interventions to reduce woodfuel demand could slow or even reverse woodfuel-driven degradation, allowing woody biomass to recover in some regions. We discuss the policy implications and propose steps to reduce uncertainty and validate the model.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa846Haitiland use land cover changelandscape modelingwoodfuelsdeforestation and forest degradation |
| spellingShingle | Adrian Ghilardi Andrew Tarter Robert Bailis Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027 Environmental Research Letters Haiti land use land cover change landscape modeling woodfuels deforestation and forest degradation |
| title | Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027 |
| title_full | Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027 |
| title_fullStr | Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027 |
| title_short | Potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in Haiti: Geospatial scenarios to 2027 |
| title_sort | potential environmental benefits from woodfuel transitions in haiti geospatial scenarios to 2027 |
| topic | Haiti land use land cover change landscape modeling woodfuels deforestation and forest degradation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa846 |
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