Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model
ObjectivesWith the aging United Kingdom population, oral diseases are expected to increase. Exploring credible projections is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of emerging population-level interventions on oral disease burden. This study aims at providing a credible, evidence-based proj...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1190197/full |
| _version_ | 1797690427695955968 |
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| author | Amal Elamin John P. Ansah |
| author_facet | Amal Elamin John P. Ansah |
| author_sort | Amal Elamin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ObjectivesWith the aging United Kingdom population, oral diseases are expected to increase. Exploring credible projections is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of emerging population-level interventions on oral disease burden. This study aims at providing a credible, evidence-based projection of the adult population in the United Kingdom with dental caries and periodontal diseases.MethodsWe developed a multi-state population model using system dynamics that disaggregates the adult population in the United Kingdom into different oral health states. The caries population was divided into three states: no caries, treated caries, and untreated caries. The periodontal disease population was disaggregated into no periodontal disease, pocketing between 4 and < 6 mm, 6 and < 9 mm, and 9 mm or more. Data from the 2009 dental health survey in the United Kingdom was used to estimate age and gender-specific prevalence rates as input to the multi-state population model.ResultsOf the population 16 years and older, the number with carious teeth is projected to decrease from 15.742 million in the year 2020 to 15.504 million by the year 2050, representing a decrease of 1.5%. For individuals with carious teeth, the older adult population is estimated to constitute 62.06% by 2050 and is projected to increase 89.4% from 5.079 million in 2020 to 9.623 million by 2050. The adult population with periodontal pocketing is estimated to increase from 25.751 million in 2020 to 27.980 million by 2050, while those with periodontal loss of attachment are projected to increase from 18.667 million in 2020 to 20.898 million by 2050. The burden of carious teeth and periodontal diseases is anticipated to shift from the adult population (16–59 years) to the older adult population. The older adult population with carious teeth is estimated to rise from 32.26% in 2020 to 62.06% by 2050, while that for periodontal disease is expected to increase from 42.44% in 2020 to 54.57% by 2050.ConclusionThis model provides evidence-based plausible future demand for oral health conditions, allowing policymakers to plan for oral health capacity to address growing needs. Because of the significant delay involved in educating and training oral health personnel, such projections offer policymakers the opportunity to be proactive in planning for future capacity needs instead of being reactive. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:59:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-94ce32c24cef4f7ea870edd9391d89cd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:59:27Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-94ce32c24cef4f7ea870edd9391d89cd2023-09-07T21:27:51ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652023-09-011110.3389/fpubh.2023.11901971190197Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population modelAmal Elamin0John P. Ansah1School of Human Sciences, Faculty of Education, Health and Human Sciences, University of Greenwich, London, United KingdomCenter for Community Health Integration, School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, United StatesObjectivesWith the aging United Kingdom population, oral diseases are expected to increase. Exploring credible projections is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of emerging population-level interventions on oral disease burden. This study aims at providing a credible, evidence-based projection of the adult population in the United Kingdom with dental caries and periodontal diseases.MethodsWe developed a multi-state population model using system dynamics that disaggregates the adult population in the United Kingdom into different oral health states. The caries population was divided into three states: no caries, treated caries, and untreated caries. The periodontal disease population was disaggregated into no periodontal disease, pocketing between 4 and < 6 mm, 6 and < 9 mm, and 9 mm or more. Data from the 2009 dental health survey in the United Kingdom was used to estimate age and gender-specific prevalence rates as input to the multi-state population model.ResultsOf the population 16 years and older, the number with carious teeth is projected to decrease from 15.742 million in the year 2020 to 15.504 million by the year 2050, representing a decrease of 1.5%. For individuals with carious teeth, the older adult population is estimated to constitute 62.06% by 2050 and is projected to increase 89.4% from 5.079 million in 2020 to 9.623 million by 2050. The adult population with periodontal pocketing is estimated to increase from 25.751 million in 2020 to 27.980 million by 2050, while those with periodontal loss of attachment are projected to increase from 18.667 million in 2020 to 20.898 million by 2050. The burden of carious teeth and periodontal diseases is anticipated to shift from the adult population (16–59 years) to the older adult population. The older adult population with carious teeth is estimated to rise from 32.26% in 2020 to 62.06% by 2050, while that for periodontal disease is expected to increase from 42.44% in 2020 to 54.57% by 2050.ConclusionThis model provides evidence-based plausible future demand for oral health conditions, allowing policymakers to plan for oral health capacity to address growing needs. Because of the significant delay involved in educating and training oral health personnel, such projections offer policymakers the opportunity to be proactive in planning for future capacity needs instead of being reactive.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1190197/fulloral diseasescariesperiodontal diseasessystem dynamicsUnited Kingdomprojections |
| spellingShingle | Amal Elamin John P. Ansah Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model Frontiers in Public Health oral diseases caries periodontal diseases system dynamics United Kingdom projections |
| title | Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model |
| title_full | Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model |
| title_fullStr | Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model |
| title_short | Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model |
| title_sort | projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the united kingdom using a multi state population model |
| topic | oral diseases caries periodontal diseases system dynamics United Kingdom projections |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1190197/full |
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