Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States
Hazards from convective weather pose a serious threat to the contiguous United States (CONUS) every year. Previous studies have examined how future projected changes in climate might impact the frequency and intensity of convective weather using simulations with both convection-permitting regional m...
| প্রধান লেখক: | , , , |
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| বিন্যাস: | প্রবন্ধ |
| ভাষা: | English |
| প্রকাশিত: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-10-01
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| মালা: | Frontiers in Climate |
| বিষয়গুলি: | |
| অনলাইন ব্যবহার করুন: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1385527/full |
| _version_ | 1827096547591979008 |
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| author | Megan E. Franke James W. Hurrell Kristen L. Rasmussen Lantao Sun |
| author_facet | Megan E. Franke James W. Hurrell Kristen L. Rasmussen Lantao Sun |
| author_sort | Megan E. Franke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hazards from convective weather pose a serious threat to the contiguous United States (CONUS) every year. Previous studies have examined how future projected changes in climate might impact the frequency and intensity of convective weather using simulations with both convection-permitting regional models and coarser-grid climate and Earth system models. We build on this existing literature by utilizing a large-ensemble of historical and future Earth system model simulations to investigate the time evolution of the forced responses in large-scale convective environments and how those responses might be modulated by the rich spectrum of internal climate variability. Specifically, daily data from an ensemble of 50 simulations with the most recent version of the Community Earth System Model was used to examine changes in the convective environment over the eastern CONUS during March-June from 1870 to 2100. Results indicate that anthropogenically forced changes include increases in convective available potential energy and atmospheric stability (convective inhibition) throughout this century, while tropospheric vertical wind shear is projected to decrease across much of the CONUS. Internal climate variability on decadal and longer time scales can either significantly enhance or suppress these forced changes. The time evolution of two-dimensional histograms of convective indices suggests that future springtime convective environments over the eastern CONUS may, on average, be supportive of relatively less frequent and shorter-lived, but deeper and more intense convection. |
| first_indexed | 2025-03-20T07:17:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-94e31d6a1b1c4f5ca2d2f2b56e6d4448 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-20T07:17:31Z |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-94e31d6a1b1c4f5ca2d2f2b56e6d44482024-10-01T05:10:06ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532024-10-01610.3389/fclim.2024.13855271385527Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United StatesMegan E. FrankeJames W. HurrellKristen L. RasmussenLantao SunHazards from convective weather pose a serious threat to the contiguous United States (CONUS) every year. Previous studies have examined how future projected changes in climate might impact the frequency and intensity of convective weather using simulations with both convection-permitting regional models and coarser-grid climate and Earth system models. We build on this existing literature by utilizing a large-ensemble of historical and future Earth system model simulations to investigate the time evolution of the forced responses in large-scale convective environments and how those responses might be modulated by the rich spectrum of internal climate variability. Specifically, daily data from an ensemble of 50 simulations with the most recent version of the Community Earth System Model was used to examine changes in the convective environment over the eastern CONUS during March-June from 1870 to 2100. Results indicate that anthropogenically forced changes include increases in convective available potential energy and atmospheric stability (convective inhibition) throughout this century, while tropospheric vertical wind shear is projected to decrease across much of the CONUS. Internal climate variability on decadal and longer time scales can either significantly enhance or suppress these forced changes. The time evolution of two-dimensional histograms of convective indices suggests that future springtime convective environments over the eastern CONUS may, on average, be supportive of relatively less frequent and shorter-lived, but deeper and more intense convection.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1385527/fullconvectionmesoscale convective systemsclimate changeinternal variabilityforced variabilitydecadal variability |
| spellingShingle | Megan E. Franke James W. Hurrell Kristen L. Rasmussen Lantao Sun Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States Frontiers in Climate convection mesoscale convective systems climate change internal variability forced variability decadal variability |
| title | Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States |
| title_full | Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States |
| title_short | Impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern United States |
| title_sort | impacts of forced and internal climate variability on changes in convective environments over the eastern united states |
| topic | convection mesoscale convective systems climate change internal variability forced variability decadal variability |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1385527/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT meganefranke impactsofforcedandinternalclimatevariabilityonchangesinconvectiveenvironmentsovertheeasternunitedstates AT jameswhurrell impactsofforcedandinternalclimatevariabilityonchangesinconvectiveenvironmentsovertheeasternunitedstates AT kristenlrasmussen impactsofforcedandinternalclimatevariabilityonchangesinconvectiveenvironmentsovertheeasternunitedstates AT lantaosun impactsofforcedandinternalclimatevariabilityonchangesinconvectiveenvironmentsovertheeasternunitedstates |