Forecasting of electricity demand in the region
Ongoing structural changes on the electricity market and technological development affecting consumers and producers increase uncertainty concerning demand for electricity, even in a short-time horizon. Because of this, it is necessary to develop forecasting methods. This paper presents a method for...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EDP Sciences
2019-01-01
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| Series: | E3S Web of Conferences |
| Online Access: | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/10/e3sconf_pe2019_01010.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818458448916905984 |
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| author | Sowiński Janusz |
| author_facet | Sowiński Janusz |
| author_sort | Sowiński Janusz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ongoing structural changes on the electricity market and technological development affecting consumers and producers increase uncertainty concerning demand for electricity, even in a short-time horizon. Because of this, it is necessary to develop forecasting methods. This paper presents a method for forecasting electricity demand based on the idea of an end-use model. Such models use regional electricity consumption rates and population growth predictions as input data, on the basis of which they yield electricity demand forecast for the whole country and for particular regions. The model also deploys stochastic differential equations for simulating time-variation of electricity consumption rates by means of the Euler method. On the basis of available statistical data, the results of a forecast in a medium-term horizon are presented. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T22:58:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9524720f0c26422e8d21b6bce1d95306 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2267-1242 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T22:58:38Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | E3S Web of Conferences |
| spelling | doaj.art-9524720f0c26422e8d21b6bce1d953062022-12-21T22:44:32ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422019-01-01840101010.1051/e3sconf/20198401010e3sconf_pe2019_01010Forecasting of electricity demand in the regionSowiński Janusz0Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Electrical EngineeringOngoing structural changes on the electricity market and technological development affecting consumers and producers increase uncertainty concerning demand for electricity, even in a short-time horizon. Because of this, it is necessary to develop forecasting methods. This paper presents a method for forecasting electricity demand based on the idea of an end-use model. Such models use regional electricity consumption rates and population growth predictions as input data, on the basis of which they yield electricity demand forecast for the whole country and for particular regions. The model also deploys stochastic differential equations for simulating time-variation of electricity consumption rates by means of the Euler method. On the basis of available statistical data, the results of a forecast in a medium-term horizon are presented.https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/10/e3sconf_pe2019_01010.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Sowiński Janusz Forecasting of electricity demand in the region E3S Web of Conferences |
| title | Forecasting of electricity demand in the region |
| title_full | Forecasting of electricity demand in the region |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting of electricity demand in the region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting of electricity demand in the region |
| title_short | Forecasting of electricity demand in the region |
| title_sort | forecasting of electricity demand in the region |
| url | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2019/10/e3sconf_pe2019_01010.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sowinskijanusz forecastingofelectricitydemandintheregion |