Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
Abstract Background The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Parasites & Vectors |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-05959-y |
| _version_ | 1827724277378449408 |
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| author | Madeleine Noll Richard Wall Benjamin L. Makepeace Hannah Newbury Lukasz Adaszek René Bødker Agustín Estrada-Peña Jacques Guillot Isabel Pereira da Fonseca Julia Probst Paul Overgaauw Christina Strube Fathiah Zakham Stefania Zanet Hannah Rose Vineer |
| author_facet | Madeleine Noll Richard Wall Benjamin L. Makepeace Hannah Newbury Lukasz Adaszek René Bødker Agustín Estrada-Peña Jacques Guillot Isabel Pereira da Fonseca Julia Probst Paul Overgaauw Christina Strube Fathiah Zakham Stefania Zanet Hannah Rose Vineer |
| author_sort | Madeleine Noll |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of different climate niche modelling approaches to explain the known distribution of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus in Europe. Methods A series of climate niche models, using different combinations of input data, were constructed and assessed. Species occurrence records obtained from systematic literature searches and Global Biodiversity Information Facility data were thinned to different degrees to remove sampling spatial bias. Four sources of climate data were used: bioclimatic variables, WorldClim, TerraClimate and MODIS satellite-derived data. Eight different model training extents were examined and three modelling frameworks were used: maximum entropy, generalised additive models and random forest models. The results were validated through internal cross-validation, comparison with an external independent dataset and expert opinion. Results The performance metrics and predictive ability of the different modelling approaches varied significantly within and between each species. Different combinations were better able to define the distribution of each of the two species. However, no single approach was considered fully able to capture the known distribution of the species. When considering the mean of the performance metrics of internal and external validation, 24 models for I. ricinus and 11 models for D. reticulatus of the 96 constructed were considered adequate according to the following criteria: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve > 0.7; true skill statistic > 0.4; Miller’s calibration slope 0.25 above or below 1; Boyce index > 0.9; omission rate < 0.15. Conclusions This comprehensive analysis suggests that there is no single ‘best practice’ climate modelling approach to account for the distribution of these tick species. This has important implications for attempts to predict climate-mediated impacts on future tick distribution. It is suggested here that climate variables alone are not sufficient; habitat type, host availability and anthropogenic impacts, not included in current modelling approaches, could contribute to determining tick presence or absence at the local or regional scale. Graphical abstract |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:13:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9584805f04cb469a95f10a812e505d3f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-3305 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:13:32Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Parasites & Vectors |
| spelling | doaj.art-9584805f04cb469a95f10a812e505d3f2023-11-19T12:31:36ZengBMCParasites & Vectors1756-33052023-10-0116111610.1186/s13071-023-05959-yPredicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approachesMadeleine Noll0Richard Wall1Benjamin L. Makepeace2Hannah Newbury3Lukasz Adaszek4René Bødker5Agustín Estrada-Peña6Jacques Guillot7Isabel Pereira da Fonseca8Julia Probst9Paul Overgaauw10Christina Strube11Fathiah Zakham12Stefania Zanet13Hannah Rose Vineer14Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of LiverpoolSchool of Biological Sciences, University of BristolInstitute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of LiverpoolMSD Animal HealthDepartment of Epizootiology and Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Life SciencesSection of Animal Welfare and Disease Control, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of CopenhagenDepartment of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of ZaragozaDepartment of Dermatology-Parasitology-Mycology, École Nationale Vétérinaire, OnirisCIISA-Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of LisbonInstitute for Parasitology, Centre for Infection Medicine, University of Veterinary Medicine HannoverDepartment Population Health Sciences, Division of Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht UniversityInstitute for Parasitology, Centre for Infection Medicine, University of Veterinary Medicine HannoverDepartment of Virology, Faculty of Medicine, University of HelsinkiDepartment of Veterinary Sciences, University of TurinInstitute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of LiverpoolAbstract Background The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of different climate niche modelling approaches to explain the known distribution of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus in Europe. Methods A series of climate niche models, using different combinations of input data, were constructed and assessed. Species occurrence records obtained from systematic literature searches and Global Biodiversity Information Facility data were thinned to different degrees to remove sampling spatial bias. Four sources of climate data were used: bioclimatic variables, WorldClim, TerraClimate and MODIS satellite-derived data. Eight different model training extents were examined and three modelling frameworks were used: maximum entropy, generalised additive models and random forest models. The results were validated through internal cross-validation, comparison with an external independent dataset and expert opinion. Results The performance metrics and predictive ability of the different modelling approaches varied significantly within and between each species. Different combinations were better able to define the distribution of each of the two species. However, no single approach was considered fully able to capture the known distribution of the species. When considering the mean of the performance metrics of internal and external validation, 24 models for I. ricinus and 11 models for D. reticulatus of the 96 constructed were considered adequate according to the following criteria: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve > 0.7; true skill statistic > 0.4; Miller’s calibration slope 0.25 above or below 1; Boyce index > 0.9; omission rate < 0.15. Conclusions This comprehensive analysis suggests that there is no single ‘best practice’ climate modelling approach to account for the distribution of these tick species. This has important implications for attempts to predict climate-mediated impacts on future tick distribution. It is suggested here that climate variables alone are not sufficient; habitat type, host availability and anthropogenic impacts, not included in current modelling approaches, could contribute to determining tick presence or absence at the local or regional scale. Graphical abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-05959-ySpecies distribution modellingClimate niche modellingTicksClimate nicheClimate changeIxodes |
| spellingShingle | Madeleine Noll Richard Wall Benjamin L. Makepeace Hannah Newbury Lukasz Adaszek René Bødker Agustín Estrada-Peña Jacques Guillot Isabel Pereira da Fonseca Julia Probst Paul Overgaauw Christina Strube Fathiah Zakham Stefania Zanet Hannah Rose Vineer Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches Parasites & Vectors Species distribution modelling Climate niche modelling Ticks Climate niche Climate change Ixodes |
| title | Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches |
| title_full | Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches |
| title_short | Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches |
| title_sort | predicting the distribution of ixodes ricinus and dermacentor reticulatus in europe a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches |
| topic | Species distribution modelling Climate niche modelling Ticks Climate niche Climate change Ixodes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-023-05959-y |
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