The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis
Abstract The 2018 United States Farm Bill has opened the possibility for farmers to increase their profits through hemp cultivation. The literature suggests hemp has the potential to replace soybeans in soybean–wheat double-cropping because hemp shares key attributes of soybeans as a rotation crop (...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2023-01-01
|
| Series: | Agricultural and Food Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-023-00242-1 |
| _version_ | 1797946100386103296 |
|---|---|
| author | Joohun Han John N. Ng’ombe |
| author_facet | Joohun Han John N. Ng’ombe |
| author_sort | Joohun Han |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The 2018 United States Farm Bill has opened the possibility for farmers to increase their profits through hemp cultivation. The literature suggests hemp has the potential to replace soybeans in soybean–wheat double-cropping because hemp shares key attributes of soybeans as a rotation crop (profitability, potential as an energy crop, and maintenance of soil fertility). Nonetheless, due to a short history of hemp cultivation in the USA, it is difficult to predict a time series relationship between hemp, soybean, and wheat through conventional approaches. In this article, we use Bayesian time series models and data from Statistics Canada and the Alberta Agricultural and Rural Development Department to examine a time series relationship between hemp, wheat, and soybean acreage and therefore predict farmers’ decision when hemp is a legal alternative agricultural commodity. Our results show evidence of complementary and substitution relationships for hemp–wheat and hemp–soybean, respectively. In addition, the results indicate a potential of hemp monoculture as a positive response to self-positive shock on hemp acreage that lasts for years. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:05:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9589026193d0406187acd125db5d1b24 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2193-7532 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T21:05:32Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural and Food Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-9589026193d0406187acd125db5d1b242023-01-22T12:02:37ZengSpringerOpenAgricultural and Food Economics2193-75322023-01-0111111210.1186/s40100-023-00242-1The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysisJoohun Han0John N. Ng’ombe1Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of ArkansasDepartment of Agribusiness, Applied Economics and Agriscience Education, North Carolina A&T State UniversityAbstract The 2018 United States Farm Bill has opened the possibility for farmers to increase their profits through hemp cultivation. The literature suggests hemp has the potential to replace soybeans in soybean–wheat double-cropping because hemp shares key attributes of soybeans as a rotation crop (profitability, potential as an energy crop, and maintenance of soil fertility). Nonetheless, due to a short history of hemp cultivation in the USA, it is difficult to predict a time series relationship between hemp, soybean, and wheat through conventional approaches. In this article, we use Bayesian time series models and data from Statistics Canada and the Alberta Agricultural and Rural Development Department to examine a time series relationship between hemp, wheat, and soybean acreage and therefore predict farmers’ decision when hemp is a legal alternative agricultural commodity. Our results show evidence of complementary and substitution relationships for hemp–wheat and hemp–soybean, respectively. In addition, the results indicate a potential of hemp monoculture as a positive response to self-positive shock on hemp acreage that lasts for years.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-023-00242-1Industrial hempWheatDouble-croppingBayesian vector autoregressive modelImpulse response analysis |
| spellingShingle | Joohun Han John N. Ng’ombe The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis Agricultural and Food Economics Industrial hemp Wheat Double-cropping Bayesian vector autoregressive model Impulse response analysis |
| title | The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis |
| title_full | The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis |
| title_fullStr | The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis |
| title_short | The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis |
| title_sort | relation between wheat soybean and hemp acreage a bayesian time series analysis |
| topic | Industrial hemp Wheat Double-cropping Bayesian vector autoregressive model Impulse response analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-023-00242-1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT joohunhan therelationbetweenwheatsoybeanandhempacreageabayesiantimeseriesanalysis AT johnnngombe therelationbetweenwheatsoybeanandhempacreageabayesiantimeseriesanalysis AT joohunhan relationbetweenwheatsoybeanandhempacreageabayesiantimeseriesanalysis AT johnnngombe relationbetweenwheatsoybeanandhempacreageabayesiantimeseriesanalysis |