Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE model
This study focuses on a national–regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021–2025) period...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2019-09-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927819300930 |
| _version_ | 1818948718901067776 |
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| author | Ji-Feng Li A-Lun Gu Zhong-Yu Ma Cheng-Long Zhang Zhen-Qing Sun |
| author_facet | Ji-Feng Li A-Lun Gu Zhong-Yu Ma Cheng-Long Zhang Zhen-Qing Sun |
| author_sort | Ji-Feng Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study focuses on a national–regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021–2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000–15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue. Keywords: Coordinated development, CMRCGE model, 14th Five-Year Plan, Energy demand, Carbon emissions |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T08:51:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-958da292a1d14ddebbe05e76fb6166a3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T08:51:16Z |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-958da292a1d14ddebbe05e76fb6166a32022-12-21T19:46:07ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782019-09-01103165173Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE modelJi-Feng Li0A-Lun Gu1Zhong-Yu Ma2Cheng-Long Zhang3Zhen-Qing Sun4State Information Center, Beijing, 100045, ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Corresponding author.State Information Center, Beijing, 100045, ChinaState Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing, 102209, ChinaTianjin Science and Technology University, Tianjin, 300222, ChinaThis study focuses on a national–regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021–2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000–15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue. Keywords: Coordinated development, CMRCGE model, 14th Five-Year Plan, Energy demand, Carbon emissionshttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927819300930 |
| spellingShingle | Ji-Feng Li A-Lun Gu Zhong-Yu Ma Cheng-Long Zhang Zhen-Qing Sun Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE model Advances in Climate Change Research |
| title | Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE model |
| title_full | Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE model |
| title_fullStr | Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE model |
| title_short | Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects of China's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application of CMRCGE model |
| title_sort | economic development energy demand and carbon emission prospects of china s provinces during the 14th five year plan period application of cmrcge model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927819300930 |
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