Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in Argentina
Sorghum is the world’s fifth major cereal in terms of production and acreage. It is expected that its growth will be affected by the increase in air temperature, an important component of global climate change. Our objective was to use the Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Ass...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Agronomy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/7/964 |
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| author | Magdalena Druille Amber S. Williams Marcelo Torrecillas Sumin Kim Norman Meki James R. Kiniry |
| author_facet | Magdalena Druille Amber S. Williams Marcelo Torrecillas Sumin Kim Norman Meki James R. Kiniry |
| author_sort | Magdalena Druille |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Sorghum is the world’s fifth major cereal in terms of production and acreage. It is expected that its growth will be affected by the increase in air temperature, an important component of global climate change. Our objective was to use the Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model to (a) evaluate the impact of climate warming on forage and grain sorghum production in Argentina and (b) to analyze to what extent yield changes were associated with changes in water or nitrogen stress days. For model calibration, we used previous information related to the morpho-physiological characteristics of both sorghum types and several soil parameters. We then used multiyear field data of sorghum yields for model validation. Yield simulations were conducted under three possible climate change scenarios: 1, 2, and 4 °C increase in mean annual temperature. ALMANAC successfully simulated mean yields of forage and grain sorghum: root mean square error (RMSE): 2.6 and 1.0 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>, respectively. Forage yield increased 0.53 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>, and grain yield decreased 0.27 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup> for each degree of increase in mean annual temperature. Yields of forage sorghum tended to be negatively associated with nitrogen stress (r = −0.94), while grain sorghum yield was negatively associated with water stress (r = −0.99). The information generated allows anticipating future changes in crop management and genetic improvement programs in order to reduce the yield vulnerability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:40:43Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:40:43Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-95c44a0989204938bea39115199009a62023-11-20T05:51:20ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952020-07-0110796410.3390/agronomy10070964Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in ArgentinaMagdalena Druille0Amber S. Williams1Marcelo Torrecillas2Sumin Kim3Norman Meki4James R. Kiniry5Cátedra de Forrajicultura, Departamento de Producción Animal, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires. Av. San Martín 4453, Buenos Aires CP 1417, ArgentinaU.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS), Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, 808 East Blackland Rd., Temple, TX 76502, USAFacultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Lomas de Zamora, Ruta 4, Km 2, Lavallol, Buenos Aires CP 1836, ArgentinaOak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, 808 East Blackland Rd., Temple, TX 76502, USATexas AgriLife Research, Blackland Research and Extension Center, 720 East Blackland Road, Temple, TX 76502, USAU.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS), Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, 808 East Blackland Rd., Temple, TX 76502, USASorghum is the world’s fifth major cereal in terms of production and acreage. It is expected that its growth will be affected by the increase in air temperature, an important component of global climate change. Our objective was to use the Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model to (a) evaluate the impact of climate warming on forage and grain sorghum production in Argentina and (b) to analyze to what extent yield changes were associated with changes in water or nitrogen stress days. For model calibration, we used previous information related to the morpho-physiological characteristics of both sorghum types and several soil parameters. We then used multiyear field data of sorghum yields for model validation. Yield simulations were conducted under three possible climate change scenarios: 1, 2, and 4 °C increase in mean annual temperature. ALMANAC successfully simulated mean yields of forage and grain sorghum: root mean square error (RMSE): 2.6 and 1.0 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>, respectively. Forage yield increased 0.53 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>, and grain yield decreased 0.27 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup> for each degree of increase in mean annual temperature. Yields of forage sorghum tended to be negatively associated with nitrogen stress (r = −0.94), while grain sorghum yield was negatively associated with water stress (r = −0.99). The information generated allows anticipating future changes in crop management and genetic improvement programs in order to reduce the yield vulnerability.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/7/964plant growthnitrogen stresswater stressclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Magdalena Druille Amber S. Williams Marcelo Torrecillas Sumin Kim Norman Meki James R. Kiniry Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in Argentina Agronomy plant growth nitrogen stress water stress climate change |
| title | Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in Argentina |
| title_full | Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in Argentina |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in Argentina |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in Argentina |
| title_short | Modeling Climate Warming Impacts on Grain and Forage Sorghum Yields in Argentina |
| title_sort | modeling climate warming impacts on grain and forage sorghum yields in argentina |
| topic | plant growth nitrogen stress water stress climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/7/964 |
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