Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study
Abstract Factors affecting the start date of the influenza epidemic season and total number of infected persons per 1,000,000 population in 47 prefectures of Japan were evaluated. This retrospective observational study (September 2014–August 2019; N = 472,740–883,804) evaluated data from a Japanese...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39617-1 |
| _version_ | 1797559986376671232 |
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| author | Genta Ito Takahiro Takazono Naoki Hosogaya Naoki Iwanaga Shogo Miyazawa Satoki Fujita Hideaki Watanabe Hiroshi Mukae |
| author_facet | Genta Ito Takahiro Takazono Naoki Hosogaya Naoki Iwanaga Shogo Miyazawa Satoki Fujita Hideaki Watanabe Hiroshi Mukae |
| author_sort | Genta Ito |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Factors affecting the start date of the influenza epidemic season and total number of infected persons per 1,000,000 population in 47 prefectures of Japan were evaluated. This retrospective observational study (September 2014–August 2019; N = 472,740–883,804) evaluated data from a Japanese health insurance claims database. Single and multiple regression analyses evaluated the time to start of the epidemic or total infected persons per 1,000,000 population with time to absolute humidity (AH) or number of days with AH (≤ 5.5, ≤ 6.0, ≤ 6.5, and ≤ 7.0), total visitors (first epidemic month or per day), and total population. For the 2014/15, 2015/16, and 2016/17 seasons, a weak-to-moderate positive correlation (R2: 0.042–0.417) was observed between time to start of the epidemic and time to first day with AH below the cutoff values. Except in the 2016/17 season (R2: 0.089), a moderate correlation was reported between time to start of the epidemic and the total population (R2: 0.212–0.401). For all seasons, multiple regression analysis showed negative R2 for time to start of the epidemic and total visitors and population density (positive for time to AH ≤ 7.0). The earlier the climate becomes suitable for virus transmission and the higher the human mobility (more visitors and higher population density), the earlier the epidemic season tends to begin. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:54:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-95cc4b0e328c40a49d22eca386a126e0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:54:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-95cc4b0e328c40a49d22eca386a126e02023-11-20T09:16:15ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-08-0113111110.1038/s41598-023-39617-1Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database studyGenta Ito0Takahiro Takazono1Naoki Hosogaya2Naoki Iwanaga3Shogo Miyazawa4Satoki Fujita5Hideaki Watanabe6Hiroshi Mukae7Data Science Department, Shionogi & Co., LtdDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Nagasaki University HospitalDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Nagasaki University HospitalDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Nagasaki University HospitalData Science Department, Shionogi & Co., LtdData Science Department, Shionogi & Co., LtdBiostatistics Center, Shionogi & Co., LtdDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Nagasaki University HospitalAbstract Factors affecting the start date of the influenza epidemic season and total number of infected persons per 1,000,000 population in 47 prefectures of Japan were evaluated. This retrospective observational study (September 2014–August 2019; N = 472,740–883,804) evaluated data from a Japanese health insurance claims database. Single and multiple regression analyses evaluated the time to start of the epidemic or total infected persons per 1,000,000 population with time to absolute humidity (AH) or number of days with AH (≤ 5.5, ≤ 6.0, ≤ 6.5, and ≤ 7.0), total visitors (first epidemic month or per day), and total population. For the 2014/15, 2015/16, and 2016/17 seasons, a weak-to-moderate positive correlation (R2: 0.042–0.417) was observed between time to start of the epidemic and time to first day with AH below the cutoff values. Except in the 2016/17 season (R2: 0.089), a moderate correlation was reported between time to start of the epidemic and the total population (R2: 0.212–0.401). For all seasons, multiple regression analysis showed negative R2 for time to start of the epidemic and total visitors and population density (positive for time to AH ≤ 7.0). The earlier the climate becomes suitable for virus transmission and the higher the human mobility (more visitors and higher population density), the earlier the epidemic season tends to begin.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39617-1 |
| spellingShingle | Genta Ito Takahiro Takazono Naoki Hosogaya Naoki Iwanaga Shogo Miyazawa Satoki Fujita Hideaki Watanabe Hiroshi Mukae Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study Scientific Reports |
| title | Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study |
| title_full | Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study |
| title_fullStr | Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study |
| title_short | Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study |
| title_sort | impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in japan a large observational database study |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39617-1 |
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