Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in China
Epidemiological studies have quantitatively linked adverse health outcomes, including stroke, to ambient temperature. However, such analyses cannot be applied to estimate disease burden attributable to climate change, because they assume a theoretical minimum risk reference based on an optimal tempe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb1f0 |
| _version_ | 1797747806669111296 |
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| author | Tao Xue Tianjia Guan Yixuan Zheng Qiang Zhang Jian Guo Yuanli Liu Tong Zhu |
| author_facet | Tao Xue Tianjia Guan Yixuan Zheng Qiang Zhang Jian Guo Yuanli Liu Tong Zhu |
| author_sort | Tao Xue |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Epidemiological studies have quantitatively linked adverse health outcomes, including stroke, to ambient temperature. However, such analyses cannot be applied to estimate disease burden attributable to climate change, because they assume a theoretical minimum risk reference based on an optimal temperature, which is a post hoc estimator that cannot be generalized to the unstudied locations. In this study, we used temperature anomaly (TA), an alternative indicator of climate change, in epidemiological studies to address this issue. We associated geo-coded nationwide stroke data (n = 11 144) from 2000 to 2016 in China to TA with a lag-distributed nonlinear model. For 0–2 lagged days, the risk of stroke increased by 20% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3%–40%) for irregular cold and 19% (95% CI: 3%–37%) for irregular heat. The exposure-response function was estimated as a U-shaped curve centered at a TA value of 0. Based on the function, an estimated 3.42% of stroke cases were attributable to TA. In addition, there were more strokes attributable to heat (2.05%) than cold (1.38%). TA-attributable strokes due to climate change increased by 0.019% (95% CI: 0.008%–0.031%) per year. Furthermore, the long-term trend was dominated by the increase in events involving heat. In contrast to cold-attributable stroke, which potentially decreased by 0.004% (95% CI: −0.005%–0.013%) per year, the heat-attributable burden increased by 0.023% (95% CI: 0.012%–0.034%) per year. We also found that ischemic stroke was associated with cold (odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.00–1.38), while hemorrhagic stroke was associated with heat (OR = 1.66, 1.07–2.58). Our findings are of importance to public health for climate change mitigation and for predictions of future effects in climate change scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-962061a46d9d4a0f98223535ac77c125 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-962061a46d9d4a0f98223535ac77c1252023-08-09T14:54:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151010501410.1088/1748-9326/abb1f0Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in ChinaTao Xue0Tianjia Guan1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7820-2898Yixuan Zheng2Qiang Zhang3Jian Guo4Yuanli Liu5Tong Zhu6Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/Ministry of Health Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University , Beijing 100191, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Health Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College , Beijing 100730, People’s Republic of ChinaCenter for Regional Air Quality Simulation and Control, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning , Beijing 100012, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100085, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College , Beijing 100005, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Health Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College , Beijing 100730, People’s Republic of ChinaBIC-ESAT and SKL-ESPC, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaEpidemiological studies have quantitatively linked adverse health outcomes, including stroke, to ambient temperature. However, such analyses cannot be applied to estimate disease burden attributable to climate change, because they assume a theoretical minimum risk reference based on an optimal temperature, which is a post hoc estimator that cannot be generalized to the unstudied locations. In this study, we used temperature anomaly (TA), an alternative indicator of climate change, in epidemiological studies to address this issue. We associated geo-coded nationwide stroke data (n = 11 144) from 2000 to 2016 in China to TA with a lag-distributed nonlinear model. For 0–2 lagged days, the risk of stroke increased by 20% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3%–40%) for irregular cold and 19% (95% CI: 3%–37%) for irregular heat. The exposure-response function was estimated as a U-shaped curve centered at a TA value of 0. Based on the function, an estimated 3.42% of stroke cases were attributable to TA. In addition, there were more strokes attributable to heat (2.05%) than cold (1.38%). TA-attributable strokes due to climate change increased by 0.019% (95% CI: 0.008%–0.031%) per year. Furthermore, the long-term trend was dominated by the increase in events involving heat. In contrast to cold-attributable stroke, which potentially decreased by 0.004% (95% CI: −0.005%–0.013%) per year, the heat-attributable burden increased by 0.023% (95% CI: 0.012%–0.034%) per year. We also found that ischemic stroke was associated with cold (odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.00–1.38), while hemorrhagic stroke was associated with heat (OR = 1.66, 1.07–2.58). Our findings are of importance to public health for climate change mitigation and for predictions of future effects in climate change scenarios.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb1f0temperature anomalyclimate changestrokeassociationdisease burden |
| spellingShingle | Tao Xue Tianjia Guan Yixuan Zheng Qiang Zhang Jian Guo Yuanli Liu Tong Zhu Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in China Environmental Research Letters temperature anomaly climate change stroke association disease burden |
| title | Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in China |
| title_full | Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in China |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in China |
| title_short | Quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in China |
| title_sort | quantifying the contribution of temperature anomaly to stroke risk in china |
| topic | temperature anomaly climate change stroke association disease burden |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb1f0 |
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